Nogger's Blog

02/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and for the week. So too did meal, which is now within $2 of the lowest close on a front month since late 2011. FCStone late yesterday raised their estimate for 2015 US soybean yields from 45.4 bu/acre to 46.9 bu/acre, taking production up from 3.791 billion bushels to 3.919 billion. Informa raised their average yield figure to 47.2 bu/acre with production at 3.878 billion bushels. The USDA get a chance to revisit their predictions next Friday. Last month they were at 47.1 bu/acre and 3.935 billion bushels. Dr Cordonnier said that Mato Grosso soybean plantings have got off to a tardy start awaiting the arrival of rain. Only 0.5% of the crop has been planted in the state so far. Southern Brazil, where rains have been plentiful, is off to a better start. Parana is 10% sown versus 7% a year ago at this time, say AgRural. Nationally about 2% of the crop is said to be planted. The Philippines are seeking soymeal for Nov-Dec shipment and South Korea are in the market for meal for Feb-March shipment. Stats Canada estimated their 2015 canola crop at 14.3 MMT versus an average trade estimate of 14.5 MMT, That's up nearly 1 MMT from their August estimate of 13.34 MMT, but down more than 2 MMT from the 2014 crop of 16.41 MMT. Ukraine said that they'd harvested almost 2 MMT of soybeans off 53% of the planned area. The Ukraine sunflower harvest is 75% done at 7.7 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report shows fund money net short around 30.5k lots on beans as of Tuesday night, that's the best part of 16k contracts less short than they were the previous week. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.74 1/4, down 3 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.78 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $298.50, down $4.10; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.84, up 75 points. For the week that places front month beans 15 cents lower, with meal losing $10.20 and oil rising 12 points.

Corn: The market closed little changed on the day and for the week. FCStone estimated 2015 US corn yields at 167.0 bu/acre, up from 165.9 bu/acre previously. They now peg production at 13.541 billion bushels, up from 13.457 billion a month ago. Informa went for 168.4 bu/acre and 13.561 billion bushels. The USDA were at 167.5 bu/acre and 13.585 billion bushels in September. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was 34% complete at 4.7 MMT. Ukraine said that it's corn harvest was 24% done at 4.66 MMT. Yields there are still way below what the USDA is projecting. The Ukraine Ag Ministry lowered their 2015 grain harvest estimate to 58.5 MMT, including 22.2 MMT of corn. The USDA still have the latter at 27 MMT. FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 9% done as of Sep 28, up 5 points in a week and 2 points ahead of this time last year. Stats Canada estimated the 2015 corn crop there at 12.2 MMT, marginally lower than the average trade estimate of 12.3 MMT. Their August estimate was 12.31 MMT and production last year was 11.5 MMT. "The Midwest forecast is much wetter. Heavy rainfall is predicted in Kansas and Nebraska, northward into Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota, then spreading eastward across Wisconsin. At least 0.75 inch of rainfall is expected, but 2.5-3 inches locally October 5-8. If the wet forecast verifies, it would set back corn and soybean harvesting that up until now has made good progress," said Martell Crop Projections. The US dollar is weaker following the release of the September jobs report. "That report was so bad that it pushed off expectations for a Fed rate hike to March, if not the end of 2016," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. That could underpin US grains going forward as the market had been expecting US interest rates to start to rise before the end of the year. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.89 1/4, up 1/2 cent; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.99 1/2, down 1/4 cent. For the week Dec 15 corn was up 1/4 of a cent and Mar 16 was down 3/4 of a cent.

Wheat: The market closed around 4-7 cents lower. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated their 2015/16 grain exports at a record 36.5 MMT. They see wheat production there this year at 26.2 MMT, and barley output at 8.3 MMT. Old crop carryover stocks were 10.3 MMT and new crop carryout will likely fall to 8.75 MMT, they predict. Stats Canada estimated their all wheat crop at 26.06 MMT versus an average trade estimate of 25.1 MMT. That's up from their August estimate of 24.6 MMT, although lower than last year's crop of 29.4 MMT. The bulls continue to point to dryness in Southern Russia and Ukraine where "it is already getting late for the crop to get established ahead of the region’s typically harsh winters. Making matters worse, abnormally cold readings are expected over the next couple weeks, making it even more difficult for the crop to develop a root system ahead of going dormant in late October and early November," said Arlan Suderman. The Russian Ag Ministry say that winter plantings are 69.5% complete on 11.9 million ha, which is half a million more than this time last year. They also say that this year's wheat crop is 93.2% harvested at 61.4 MMT. Barley is 94% harvested at 17.6 MMT, they add. Indonesia were said to have bought 60,000 MT of Australian wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Thailand is buying Black Sea area wheat for October–March shipment. The Philippines are said to be looking for 50,000 MT of milling wheat for March-April shipment. Egypt released a tender after the market closed for wheat for Nov 1-10 shipment, with the results expected on Monday. It will be interesting to see where the Russian offers line up now that they have changed the way that their export duty is calculated. Ukraine said that they'd exported almost 10 MMT of grains so far this season, including almost 5.5 MMT of wheat. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.13 1/4, down 5 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.00 1/2, down 7 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.27 1/4, down 4 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat up 5 1/2 cents, with Kansas up just 1/4 of a cent and Minneapolis up 4 1/2 cents.