Nogger's Blog

20/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. It was only a relatively modest rebound though, and one that came after four consecutive days of losses. The USDA announced 132,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. The weather in Brazil remains "a game of two halves" - hot and dry in northern and central areas and wet in the south. "Extreme heat has developed without significant rainfall in Brazil’s tropical soybean states. Conditions have been extremely dry in October. Without evaporative cooling, temperatures have soared. Maximum temperatures yesterday reached 107 F (41.7 C) in Mato Grosso and Goias. Typically, showers are already underway in late October, but this season the monsoon has been delayed. The slow arrival of tropical rainfall may be related to a very strong El Nino, among the most potent on record. The forecast calls for below average rainfall again in the upcoming week in Mato Grosso and the tropics at large. South Brazil would continue wet, as generous rainfall is predicted in Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and southern Mato Grosso do Sul," said Martell Crop Projections. Dr Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian 2015/16 soybean crop at 100.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. In Argentina he goes for plantings of 20.9 million ha, up 2% from a year ago. He has production there currently at 60 MMT, also unchanged from previously, but is indicating that this may be lowered in future reports. A group pf Chinese industry analysts estimated the country's October soybean imports at 6.0 MMT, rising to 7.0 MMT in November and 7.2 MMT in December. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.96, up 5 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $9.01, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $309.50, down $1.30; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.66, up 52 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents higher, more or less reversing yesterday's losses. Safras e Mercado said that Brazil’s first corn crop is 53.8% planted versus 41.9% a year ago, helped by abundant rains in the south of the country. This wet weather in the south continues to disrupt corn exports out of the Brazilian port of Paranagua. This may lead to some Asian buyers switching purchases to other suppliers it is being mooted. Dr Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian 2015/16 total corn crop at 81.2 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He said that there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding Argentine farmers' corn planting intentions, and that the final area sown this year could be down anywhere from 15% to 40% compared to 2014. Japan's use of corn in animal feed in August was 45.7% versus 45.0% a year ago. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest was 62% complete on 1.7 million ha for a crop of 8.6 MMT to date. Yields are said to be averaging 5.1 MT/ha versus 4.54 MT/ha a year ago. That leaves them on target for a record crop this year. Not so in Ukraine, where production is seen almost 20% lower at 22.9 MMT by the Ag Ministry, and some estimates are now lower than that. Good weather is forecast in US Midwest in the week ahead, which should accelerate this year's corn harvest from the 59% done estimated by the USDA last night. The US Energy Dept are due out with their usual weekly ethanol production and stocks data tomorrow. Production was 949,000 barrels/day last week. The market will be hoping for an increase, especially with US corn exports remaining at a sluggish pace. It's the Argentine presidential elections on Sunday. The polls indicate that it will be a close contest. Both leading candidates are promising export tax cuts on grains for farmers. "If the opposition win, and they carry through on their promise of eliminating the export taxes and to stop interfering in the export market, it could be a 'game changer' for Argentine agriculture," said Dr Cordonnier. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The market closed around 4-5 cents higher, correcting some (but not all) of yesterday's losses. Russia said that their 2015 grain harvest was 96.8% complete at 103.6 MMT versus 105.7 MMT this time a year ago. Wheat accounts for 63.6 MMT of that total off 99.3% of the planned area. Barley adds another 18.2 MMT, also off 99.3% of plan. Winter grain plantings for the 2016 harvest are said to be 88.5% complete in Russia at 15.1 million ha, down 1 million ha on this time a year ago. Dry weather in Ukraine means that their winter wheat crop is only 81% sown, and less than half of the planned winter barley area has so far been planted. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that winter wheat plantings could now only total 5.5 million ha versus a previous estimate of 6.2 million. Japan seeks 134,352 MT of food wheat for Nov-Dec shipment in their regular weekly tender. This week that's split between US and Canadian origin, with no Australian material required. Jordan cancelled a tender to buy 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat. US Wheat Associates said that in US hard red winter wheat the average protein content is 12.4% which is lower than the 5-year average. The average US hard red spring wheat protein is 14.1% versus 13.6% a year ago, they added. The US winter wheat weather outlook is mixed. "Very heavy rainfall is predicted for the southern Great Plains, the US breadbasket, though soft wheat areas in the Midwest would continue dry. The 5-day forecast calls for drenching rain in the Great Plains, 4-6 times normal in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, the 3 leading bread wheat states. Strong showers would develop in Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota, all significant hard red wheat states. Midwest soft red wheat areas are expected to miss out on the rainfall, perpetuating drought. Very dry Midwest field conditions have developed in the past month, slowing wheat emergence and growth. Rainfall the past 30 days has been negligible," said Martell Crop Projections. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.91 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.76 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.09, up 4 1/2 cents.