Nogger's Blog

15/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4-5 cents lower. The September NOPA crush came in at 126.7 million bushels. In a Reuters survey the average trade estimate for that was 129.4 million bu, with a range of estimates of 125.0-132.74 million bu. Even so, that was still the largest September crush since 2007 and was also well above the September 2014 crush of 99.97 million bu. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated 2015/16 Argentine soybean plantings at 20.5 million ha. That's 0.5 million more than the USDA and up 6% versus 19.3 million a year ago. There's talk that a Communist Party meeting in China later this month has raised expectations of fresh stimulus measures being introduced to aid their ailing economic growth. Chinese industry analysts forecast the nation's October soybean imports at 6 MMT, rising to 7 MMT each in Nov and Dec. Somar said that Brazilian bean and corn planting is being held up due to dryness in centre-west and excess rain in the southernmost grain state of Rio Grande do Sul. In the centre-west, the leading state of Mato Grosso is said to be only 12-15% planted versus 25% a year ago and 23.5% on average at this time. "There still are worries about the weather in the Brazil tropics. The rainy monsoon season is off to a slow start. Usually, strong showers begin developing by mid October, but conditions have been hot and dry," said Martell Crop Projections. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for this year's US soybean crop by 37 million bu from a week ago to 3.863 billion bu. They cut their outlook on Argentina by 1.83 MMT to 59.57 MMT and raised Brazil by 1.53 MMT to 100.33 MMT. In line with other analyst's expectations, Oil World said that global palm oil supplies will tighten in 2016 raising prices and reducing palm's discount to other vegoils. Malaysian palm oil is said to currently be running at $66/tonne discount to Argentine soybean oil versus an average of $77/tonne in September and an average of $96/tonne in August. Trade estimates for tomorrow's one day delayed weekly export sales report for beans are around 1.0-1.8 MMT. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.05 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $9.09, down 5 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $314.00, down $1.80; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.58, down 25 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents lower. The US Energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production at 949,000 barrels/day last week, down slightly from the previous week. Crude fell on the news that stocks rose 7.6 million to 468.6 million barrels last week - around the highest levels in 80 years for this time of year. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated Argentine corn for grain plantings at 3.3 million ha, which is 300,000 more than the USDA's current prediction who say that plantings last year were 3.2 million ha. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange are less optimistic, estimating 2015/16 Argentine corn plantings at 2.7 million ha. MDA CropCast added 0.63 MMT to their forecast for the global corn crop, with US production raised 44 million bushels to 13.695 billion bu. They cut Ukraine by 1.7 MMT from a week ago to 21.3 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country has harvested 53% of it's corn area for a crop of only 11.157 MMT so far - things need to improve quickly and markedly to hit the USDA's current 25 MMT target. Russia said that it's corn harvest was 56.8% complete at 7.9 MMT, leaving them on track for a record output this year. Strategie Grains estimated the 2015 EU corn crop at 57.6 MMT versus a previous estimate of 57.4 MMT, but still down 24% from 75.9 MMT in 2014. FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest is 38% complete versus 15% done a year ago. China are said to be attempting to auction off a total of 5.4 MMT of corn from reserves today and tomorrow. Some reports say that Brazil’s October corn exports could beat the August record corn exports of 4.6 MMT. Other reports say that the excess rains currently being seen in southern Brazil could now be starting to have an adverse effect on shipping out of Paranagua port, with rain delaying loading of vessels. Waiting times for vessels at Paranagua port have apparently now climbed to 40 days. South Korea KOCOPIA are shopping for 165,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb shipment. Vietnam are said to have bought around 500,000 MT of optional origin corn for Oct-Dec shipment. Bangladesh are said to have bought 150,000 MT of Brazilian corn. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 450,000 MT to 800,000 MT. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.75 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The market closed around 3-6 cents lower across the three exchanges. Egypt bought Russian and Romanian wheat again for Nov 21-30 shipment. The average price paid was said to be $212.16/tonne C&F, up from the $208.93/tonne paid over the weekend, albeit that the latter was for a slightly early shipping period. French wheat again missed out at a best-priced $216.49/tonne C&F. This time round it was also priced out on an FOB basis too, regardless of the more expensive freight costs. Japan bought 116,800 MT of wheat for Dec shipment split 64,100 MT of US origin, 31,000 MT from Canada and 21,700 MT from Australia. Morocco bought 108,500 MT of local soft wheat. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the 2015/16 Argentine wheat planted area at 3.7 million ha, unchanged from their previous estimate. The USDA are at 3.5 million and plantings last year were 4.2 million. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that the harvest had just about begun in very small areas in the northern tip of the country. MDA CropCast added 2.91 MMT to their global wheat production forecast. Canadian spring wheat output is now seen 0.85 MMT higher than last week, with EU output up 1.82 MMT, Australia raised 0.34 MMT, but Argentina dropped 0.44 MMT. Russia said that their 2015 wheat harvest was now 98.7% complete on 25.3 million ha for a crop of 63.5 MMT in bunker weight. The Russian Ag Ministry said the country should have no less than 3.5 MMT of grain in reserves. Current grain stocks are said to be only 1.9 MMT. They are reported to have raised the price that they will pay local growers by RUB1,000/tonne in an attempt to encourage more sales to the intervention fund. Ukraine’s State Statistics Service said that the country's grain stocks as of October 1st were at 25.8 MMT, up 10% from a year ago. The Ukraine Ag Ministry are confident that the country can export a record volume of grain this year, despite a significantly lower corn crop, with wheat taking up the slack. FranceAgriMer said that French soft wheat plantings were 39% complete versus 31% a year ago as of Monday. Strategie Grains again raised their forecast for this year's EU-28 soft wheat crop, now pegging that at a record 149.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 147.5 MMT and a touch higher than last year's 149.1 MMT. They now see EU-28 barley output at 60.6 MMT versus a previous estimate of 60.4 MMT and also compared to 60.4 MMT in 2014. The EU-28 soft wheat area for the 2016 harvest is estimated at 24.0 million ha, little changed from the 24.1 million sown for this year's harvest. China only sold 4,000 MT of wheat at auction out of the offered volume of 851,000 MT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 250-500,000 MT. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.02 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.96 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.23 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents.