Chicago Grains Mixed, Beans Lower Despite Strong Exports
29/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite weekly export sales of over 2 MMT for 2015/16 being up 8 percent from the previous week and 19 percent above the prior 4-week average. They were also right at the top end of trade expectations of 1.6-2.0 MMT. China took 1.4 MMT. Exports of 2.8 MT were also a marketing-year high, and were up 25 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination again was China (1,739,600 MT). Meal sales this week came in at 218,700 MT for 2015/16 and exports themselves were 329,300 MT. The IGC raised their estimate for the world soybean crop in 2015/16 by 2 MMT, but increased consumption by a similar amount keeping ending stocks unchanged. Both Brazil and Argentina's new crop production estimates were raised 1 MMT each to 99 MMT and 57 MMT respectively. China's imports were increased from 79.5 MMT to a new record 80 MMT. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their estimates for the global 2015/16 soybean crop and also that in the US this year (the latter being at 3.863 billion bushels). South Korea's NOFI are tendering for 55,000 MT of SOuth American soymeal for Mar/Apr shipment. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.78 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.80 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $301.60, up $1.70; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.88, down 23 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents higher, reversing yesterday's losses. Weekly export sales of 708,800 MT for 2015/16 were up noticeably from the previous week and 34 percent above the prior 4-week average. They also easily beat trade expectations for sales of a modest 300-500,000 MT. Even so, marketing year sales are still far smaller than they were last year at this time. Exports of 433,300 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The main homes were all nearby destinations: Mexico, Coumbia, Peru etc., perhaps indicating that US corn is still finding it difficult to make inroads into "non-traditional" homes further afield with corn. The IGC raised their forecast for the global corn crop by 3 MMT from last month to 970 MMT, and also increased ending stocks by 1 MMT to 200 MMT. Brazil's new crop corn potential was increased from 78.0 MMT to 81.4 MMT. South Africa's crop was pared back from 13.0 MMT to 12.5 MMT and Ukraine's cut from 24.5 MMT to 23.0 MMT. MDA CropCast cut their global corn crop estimate by 2.68 MMT from a week ago, with 2.2 MMT of that coming from South Africa where they now only see output at 10.8 MMT. Argentina's crop was reduced 0.48 MMT to 21.6 MMT. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest was now 73.2% complete at 10.2 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Indonesia said that the country would harvest 8.8 MMT of corn in 2015/16 versus 9.1 MMT a year previously. Production is though heavily dependent on rains in November and December, they noted. Despite the fall in output, imports are also expected to drop, down to 3.2 MMT from 3.5 MMT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.80, up 4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.89 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished the day higher, helped by a reversal in the dollar's fortunes today. Weekly export sales of 550,300 MT for delivery in 2015/16 were also up 54 percent from the previous week and 86 percent above the prior 4-week average, if albeit fairly average and in line with expectations of 350,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports of 320,200 MT were up 51 percent from the previous week, but down 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The IGC cut 1 MMT off their estimate for the 2015/16 world wheat crop and trimmed 2 MMT off carryout. "The wheat crop is still expected to be a new high, but the forecast is slightly lower month on month, including a downgrade for Australia owing to overly dry conditions," they said. Australia's crop was cut from 25.5 MMT to 24.0 MMT, which is now in line with most other trade estimates (except the USDA). Argentina's crop was trimmed back by 0.5 MMT to 10.4 MMT, and the US all wheat crop cut from 58.5 MMT to 55.8 MMT. There were increases though for Europe (155.5 MMT to 157.7 MMT), Ukraine (25.5 MMT to 26.0 MMT), Russia (60.0 MMT to 60.6 MMT) and Canada (25.5 MMT to 26.1 MMT). MDA CropCast were unchanged on their estimates for the global wheat crop and US output (the latter seen at 2.218 billion bushels). Egypt's Egypt GASC bought 240,000 MT of wheat for December shipment from France, Poland and Romania. Russian wheat was interestingly priced out. Russia's 2015 wheat harvest is just about ended at a reported 63.8 MMT in bunker weight. Russia's domestic purchases for the intervention fund have picked up in the last week or two. Russian winter grain plantings for the 2016 harvest are said to be 91.6% complete. Ukraine's are about 84% done. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.15, up 9 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.88 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.20, up 4 cents.
