Nogger's Blog

05/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 10 cents or so higher. Weekly export inspections of 1.123 MMT were double those of the previous week and also more than twice the expected 450-600,000 MT. South America is busy too exporting beans. Brazil shipped out 3.71 MMT last month, a 39% increase year-on-year. Argentina exported 1.67 MMT of beans in September versus 350,000 MT in September 2014, with 1.2 MMT of last month's total heading to China. Argentina also exported 3.87 MMT of meal in September versus 3.1 MMT in August and 2.4 MMT in September 2014. Abiove estimated the 2016 Brazilian soybean crop at a record 97.8 MMT, some 0.8 MMT higher than the current USDA figure. Abiove estimated 2014/15 Brazilian soybean exports at 52.4 MMT versus previous estimate of 50.3 MMT. They see these rising to a record 52.8 MMT next season. IMEA said that as of October 1st Mato Grosso’s 2015/16 soybean crop is 1.67% planted versus 4.6% a year ago. The Philippines passed on a soymeal tender for Nov/Dec shipment on Friday. Tunisia was said to have bought 37,000 MT of Argentine meal for Nov/Dec shipment. South Korea are tendering for soymeal for Feb/March shipment. After the close the USDA raised good to excellent US soybean condition ratings by 2 points to 64%. No change was expected, although this is still 9 points behind a year ago. Harvest pace doubled from 21% done to 42% complete, 10 points ahead of this time last year. The proportion of the crop dropping leaves is 85% versus 74% a week ago and 83% a year ago. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.84 1/4, up 10 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.88 1/4, up 10 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $301.00, up $2.50; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.48, up 64 points. Note that oil continues to strengthen on perceived El Nino-related production problems for Indo/Malay palm oil, making meal the weakest leg of the three.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher. Weekly export inspections came in at 469,697 MT versus expectations of 750-900,000 MT and down 42% on the previous week. Cumulative marketing year inspections are 20% below those of a year ago at this time. Bangladesh and India are both said to be seeking Brazilian corn. Brazil said that they'd exported 3.46 MMT of corn last month - the largest single monthly volume since November 2013 and up 29% year-on-year. Cepea estimated Brazil’s 2015 corn exports at 26.7 MMT. Ukraine said it had harvested 1.243 million ha, or 30% of it's planned corn area, producing a crop of 5.87 MMT to date, with the yields averaging 4.72 MT/ha. The USDA expects final yields of 6.59 MT/ha, which now looks extremely unlikely. At this rate production will struggle to reach 20 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry have final output this year at 22.2 MMT and the USDA are at 27 MMT! Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was 39% done on 1.07 million ha producing a crop of 5.3 MMT to date. Yields are averaging 4.98 MT/ha versus USDA expectations of 5.00 MT/ha. Russian seaports exported 484.7 TMT of corn last week. Ukraine seaports shipped out 53.3 TMT. Russia's corn exports Jul/Sep are 438 TMT. FranceAgriMer said that the corn harvest there was 9% complete as of last Monday versus only 2% done this time a year ago. The USDA said that the 2015 US corn harvest is 27% complete versus 18% a week ago, 16% a year ago and 32% done for the 5-year average. They say that 86% of the crop is mature, and thus "safe from frost" versus 83% on average. They were unchanged at 68% on good to excellent crop ratings, although excellent improved one point and good dropped one point. The crop was 74% good to excellent this time a year ago. US yields are said to be dropping off a little as the harvest advances, leading the trade to expect a 2-3 bu/acre cut in forecasted final yields in Friday's WASDE report. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.93 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $4.03 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains. Weekly export inspections of 557,109 MT were 12% down on a week ago, but in line with expectations of 450-650,000 MT. Egypt bought 235,000 MT of wheat over the weekend for Nov 1-10 shipment. Of that, 175,000 MT was Russian origin and 60,000 MT of Ukraine origin. The prices paid were just over $190/tonne FOB. French material was competitive on an FOB basis, but missed out due to higher shipping costs. Warm and dry weather means that the French winter wheat crop for the 2016 harvest is only 3% planted versus 7% a year ago. Winter barley plantings are similarly retarded at 3% done versus 11% complete a year ago. Wetter weather is in the forecast though. Russia said that it had exported 9.78 MMT of grains in the first quarter (Jul/Sep) of the 2015/16 marketing year, a 15.2% drop compared with 11.53 MMT in the same period a year ago. That includes 7.64 MMT of wheat and 1.64 MMT of barley. Russia's 2015 wheat harvest is said to be 95.6% complete at 62.3 MMT in bunker weight. Frost and wet weather may cut the wheat crop in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state to 1.9-2.0 MMT, some 20% down on previous expectations of 2.4-2.5 MMT. A fairly hard frost hit around Sep 12-13 when 80% of the crop was at the flowering stage. In Brazil's leading wheat producing state of Parana, production might fall 10% this year to 3.6 MMT it is thought. These are the two top wheat states in the country. The USDA said that US winter wheat planting for the 2016 harvest was now 49% complete, up from 31% done a week ago and now only 2 points behind the 5-year average. Emergence is pegged at 20%, up from 7% a week ago, and also now 2 points behind the recent average. The trade continues to debate dryness in Russia. Rainfall totals are said to be 45% below average since the start of planting in August, with only light rains in the forecast. Iraq and the Philippines are said to be tendering for wheat. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.15 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.02, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.30 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.