Nogger's Blog

21/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains, building on yesterday's advances, and managing a close above $9/bu on front month Nov 15 too. Demand seems pretty solid. The USDA announced 20,000 MT of US soybean oil sold to China, along with a similar quantity to "unknown" under the daily reporting system today, both for 2015/16 shipment. China customs data pegs the country's September imports at 7.26 MMT, up 44.27% from a year ago. Of that total 5.13 MMT came from Brazil and 1.62 MMT from Argentina. The US traditionally wouldn't be a big supplier to China in September as it falls just right at the start of the new US harvest. China's Jan/Sep soybean imports are 59.65 MMT, up 13.09% from a year ago. That includes 33.04 MMT from Brazil, 6.92 MMT from Argentina and 17.00 MMT from the US. AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean crop at a record high of 100.6 MMT, up 4.6% on last year's 96.2 MMT in it's first estimate for the new season. They see Brazil’s planted area at 33.1 million hectares, up 3.3% from a year ago and have the country's exports at 54.0 MMT. They said that they expect the average price of soybeans in 2015/16 to be around $9.00/bu. Plantings were 14% complete as of October 15th compared to 11% done a year earlier, they said. Deral said Parana’s soybean crop is 51% planted versus 36% a week ago the 5-year average of 49%. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 1.2-1.8 MMT and 150-300,000 MT for meal. EU rapeseed futures finished at a 10-week high tonight. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.05 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $9.09 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $310.50, up $1.00; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 29.18, up 52 points.

Corn: The corn market closed higher for a second day, helped by gains in beans and wheat. The US Energy Dept put weekly US ethanol production at 951,000 barrels/day last week, up a modest 2,000 bpd from the previous week. Ethanol stocks tightened by 100,000 barrels to 18.9 million barrels. Unlike the soy complex though, there's been a dearth of daily announcements from the USDA of impressive corn sales under the daily reporting system. Tomorrow's weekly export sales report will therefore be of interest, with trade forecasts for that a relatively modest 450-650,000 MT. AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s total corn area at 16.7 million ha, up 5.1% from a year ago. They see 2015/16 production at 88.5 MMT, up 3.5% from a year ago. Exports are estimated at 32-34 MMT. They said that Brazilian growers have sold 30-40% of their 2015/16 winter corn crop. Corn loadings at the southern Brazilian port of Paranagua were said to have been suspended again today due to rains. Port operations have now been halted for 11 days in October due to rain. They were also called off for 15 days in September. Talk of buyers looking at switching purchases to other origins remains. Deral said Parana’s first corn crop is 82% planted versus 76% a week ago. Russia said that their corn harvest is 66.3% complete on 1.8 million ha for a crop of 9.2 MMT so far. Yields are said to be averaging 5.09 MT/ha versus 4.56 MT/ha a year ago and the USDA's prediction of 5.0 MT/ha. Chinese customs data has them importing only 170,000 MT of corn in September. Calendar year to date imports are 4.53 MMT, up 180% compared to Jan/Sep 2014. Their September DDGs imports were 934,000 MT, up 73% on a year ago. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80 3/4, up 4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.90 1/4, up 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished the day around 3-4 cents higher. Russian material was said to be the cheapest offer in Iraq's recent hard wheat tender, although US wheat wasn't completely blown out of the water, especially when considering the much more expensive freight costs. Still, as with corn, there's been a distinct lack of action with regards to US wheat sales of late. Marketing year sales to date are down 18% from the previous year’s pace. Cumulative sales thus far are just 51% of USDA’s target for the year versus 62% this time last season. Note too that this season's target is the lowest total of the past 44 years. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are around 300-500,000 MT. Concerns about dryness in the Black Sea and Australia remain. Chinese customs data has them importing 207,000 MT of wheat in September, with Jan/Sep imports of 2.25 MMT down 20.9% on a year previously. Barley imports last month were 1.3 MMT and 2015 calendar year imports are 8.72 MMT, up 104% year-on-year. Customs data shows Japan imported 1.93 MMT of grain in September, down 9% from a year ago. Tunisia bought 167,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat for Dec-April shipment in a tender. The FAO estimated Algeria’s 2015/16 wheat imports at 7.2 MMT versus the five year average of 6.0 MMT. Russia said that it's 2015 wheat harvest was now 99.5% compete at 63.7 MMT, with yields at 2.51 MT/ha versus 2.63 MT/ha a year ago. The 2015 Russian barley harvest stands at 18.2 MMT off a similar percentage area. Winter grains have now been planted on 15.5 million ha, say the Russian Ag Ministry. That's now over 90% of their forecast, but still 700,000 ha less than this time last year. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.94 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.80 1/2, up 4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.11 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.