Chicago Beans Rebound From 6-Year Lows
23/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, rebounding from a more than 6-year overnight low following victory for opposition candidate Mauricio Macri in the weekend's presidential election run-off in Argentina. Bloomberg suggested that Argentine growers could be sitting on as much as a huge 22 MMT hoard to soybeans that they might now want to release onto the market. That provided the initial bearish sentiment. Weekly export inspections of 1.854 MMT were 15% down on last week, but still a pretty decent total. Demand from China remains strong despite concerns over their economy. Chinese customs data shows them importing 5,531,696 MT of beans in October, up 34.85% from a year ago. Some 512,139 MT of that total came from the US, up 103.5% from a year ago. A further near 3.9 MMT came from Brazil (+47%) and another 919 TMT from Argentina (+30%). They also imported 364,680 MT of rapeseed last month, up 94.94% from a year ago. Jan/Oct Chinese soybean imports are 65.18 MMT, up 14.66% from a year ago. The USDA announced 251,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.64 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.66 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $285.30, up $2.30; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.91, up 1 point.
Corn: The corn market settled around 3-4 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of 494,689 MT were in line with the expected 350-550,000 MT. China imported just 42,883 MT of corn in October, down 62.44% from a year ago. Even so, Jan/Oct corn imports are 4,516,893 MT, up 164% from a year ago. They shipped in 660,193 MT of DDGs in October, up 460% from a year ago. Russian seaports shipped out 113,000 MT of corn last week, around 21.5% of the total grain volume exported during the week. Russia's total corn exports so far this season (Jul 1 to Nov 18) are said to be 1.05 MMT. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the 2015 corn harvest there is 88.1% complete on 2.4 million ha for a crop of 12.4 MMT to date. Yields are said to be averaging 5.16 MT/ha versus 4.56 MT/ha a year ago. Ukraine seaports are said to have exported 217 TMT of corn last week, around 43% of all grain shipped out of the country. US grain markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and will trade a holiday-shortened session on Friday. We could therefore see a bit of book-squaring and/or profit-taking Tuesday/Wednesday, which might also explain today's modest price rises if they were due to a bit of short-covering. US growers are reluctant sellers at these levels, but we have to consider the effect of the falling Argentine peso and Brazilian real means that South American prices are viewed as pretty good. Forward sales there are thus surprisingly advanced. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.67 1/4, up 4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.73, up 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The market closed around 6-7 cents firmer across the three exchanges. That rise came despite weekly export inspections this morning coming in at a fairly modest 271,335 MT, although that was in line with the expected 200-400,000 MT. China imported 315,739 MT of wheat in October up 682% from a year ago. Barley imports of 998,367 MT were up 356% from a year ago. Ag Canada estimated Canada’s 2015/16 wheat crop at 26.061 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Russian seaports were said to have shipped out 405 TMT of wheat last week, around 77% of all grain exports. Ukraine seaports shipped out 501 TMT of grains, of which over 40% (203 TMT) was wheat and 16% (82 TMT) was barley. Russia's 2015/16 season to date (to Nov 18) grain exports are 15.48 MMT, down 9.2% on a year ago. Over 75% of those (11.69 MMT) were wheat and a further 2.51 MMT was barley. Jordan are back in the market tendering for 100,000 MT each of optional origin hard wheat and feed barley. Last week's tenders for the similar quantities of both were pulled. France are said to be currently loading an unusual 50,000 MT cargo of wheat in Rouen destined for Indonesia - said to be the first such shipment since 2009. Euro weakness and dollar strength continues to hamper US export hopes. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.95, up 6 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.64 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16 1/2, up 7 cents.
