Chicago Corn Holds Steady, But Beans And Wheat Slip Further
18/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, and within 2 cents of the the lowest close for a front month since Mar 2009. The trade perception is that plantings in Brazil are catching up, and that another record crop could be on the way from there early in 2016. If planting delays in Mato Grosso and other northern/central states do ultimately prove to be a problem, it could be more of an issue for safrinha corn planting than for full season beans it is being suggested. South Korea's MFG reportedly seek 60,000 MT of US, Chinese, or South American origin soymeal for June shipment. There's talk that China may start auctioning rapeseed oil from reserves this week. Some analysts have China’s November soybean imports as high as 7.2-8.0 MMT versus 5.53 MMT in October. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sale report for beans are 700,000 MT to 1.1 MMT and for meal 150,000 to 300,000 MT. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.57 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.60 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $285.60, down $2.90; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.44, down 3 points.
Corn: The corn market settled around unchanged. Ideas that late soybean plantings in Central/northern Brazil night lean towards lower corn production down the line are a bit friendly. Colombia and Japan are both said to be seeking US corn for February shipment. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2015/16 corn surplus at 52.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 55.0 MMT, but still up 1 MMT versus 2014/15. The French Farm Ministry estimated France's 2015 corn crop at 13.15 MMT versus a previous estimate of 13.1 MMT. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was 86.9% complete at 12.2 MMT versus only 10.7 MMT this time a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are in the region of 500,000 to 700,000 MT. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 975,000 barrels per day, down 7,000 bpd on the previous week. The trade is forecasting/expecting an opposition Macri win in Argentina's weekend election run-off, which could open the doors for increased corn exports in the year(s) ahead. NYMEX crude manages to hold above $40/barrel for now. OPEC say that the average members' production cost is $43.29 per barrel - the lowest level in around six years. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.61 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.68 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The market closed lower. US exports remain poor. The trade is only expecting weekly sales of 200,000 to 400,000 MT tomorrow. Tunisia seeks 134,000 MT of optional origin soft wheat for Dec-Feb shipment, along with 92,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat for Feb-April shipment and 25,000 MTof optional origin feed barley for January shipment. Ethiopia are said to be likely to be back in the market tendering for wheat again soon. Jordan cancelled tender to buy 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Feb-March shipment. The French Farm Ministry estimated 2015 France soft wheat crop at a record 41.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Russia said that they'd exported 18 MMT of wheat so far this calendar year. Australia is suddenly turning wetter. "Rainfall has increased sharply in Australia the past 2 weeks, following a very dry October. All the main wheat states have received beneficial heavy rainfall, 15% to 300% of normal this month to date. Soil moisture has gone from a deficit to a surplus in New South Wales' western wheat area where 48 millimeters of rainfall has accumulated in November. Similar drenching rains developed in South Australia and Western Australia, though Victoria has continued dry," said Martell Crop Projections. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.83 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.58 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00, down 1 3/4 cents.
