Chicago Grains Begin New Month In The Red
02/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, in line with a general downturn in commodities to start the new month. The move came despite another impressive set of weekly export inspections. These came in at 2.561 MMT which takes the season-to-date total to almost 1 MMT more than this time a year ago. The USDA reported a change in destinations of 233,832 MT of soybeans for delivery from unknown destinations to China, and fresh export sales of 120,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China, and also new export sales of 20,000 MT of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations, all for delivery during the 2015/16 marketing year. Plantings in Brazil remain behind "normal" although in line with a year ago. Safras e Mercado said on Friday Brazil’s soybean planting is 27.5% complete versus 18.3% a week ago, 22% a year ago and 40.8% on average. They said that the top producing state of Mato Grosso is 38% complete versus 21% a week ago, 35% a year ago and 59% on average. Goias bean planting is only 12% complete versus 5% a week ago, 27% a year ago and 41% on average, as growers in northern areas await better rains. South Korea's NOFI bought 55,000 MT of South American soymeal for Mar/Apr shipment. After the close the USDA said that this year's US soybean harvest was 92% complete, up 5 points form a week ago and 4 ahead of this time last year. FC Stone estimated 2015 US soybean yields at 47.5 bu/acre, with production 3.917 billion bu. They were at 46.9 bu/acre and 3.919 billion bu previously. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.77 3/4, down 6 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.78 3/4, down 7 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $302.20, down $2.20; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.85, down 35 points.
Corn: The corn market settled around 5-6 cents lower. Weekly export inspections of 477,438 MT were at the low end of trade expectations. Cumulative season-to-date inspections are 23.6% smaller than they were this time last year. The USDA reported 427.5 million bushels of corn were used to produce ethanol during September, down almost 20 million bu from August and the smallest monthly total since April. The USDA said that this year's US corn harvest is 85% done versus 75% a week ago, 62% a year ago and 79% complete for the 5-year average. Ukraine said that they'd exported 208.9 TMT of corn via its seaports last week, down from 425.7 TMT the previous week. Corn accounted for only 26% of last week's exports versus 46% the previous week. The USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated their 2015/16 corn production at 22.7 MMT, down 20% from previously and well below the official USDA forecast of 25 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that this year's corn harvest had now reached 79% done on 3.27 million ha for a crop of 17.12 MMT to date. That implies final production of only 21.7 MMT. The USDA get a chance to revise their production numbers next week. FC Stone estimated US 2015 corn yields at 168.0 bu/acre, with production at 13.543 billion bushels. They were at 167.0 bu/acre and 13.541 billion bus previously. The USDA were 168.0 bu/acre and 13.555 billion bu in October. Late planting of corn in central and northern Brazil potentially delays and/or alters farmers' safrinha corn planting intentions early next year. The USDA attaché in Russia estimated the 2015 corn crop there up 0.5 MMT from his previous estimate to 12.5 MMT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.76 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.85 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The market closed with double digit losses. Weekly export inspections of only 170,993 MT set the tone. Expectations were in the 275-400,000 MT region. That re-enforces the notion that US wheat is simply too dear into all but nearby/traditional homes. The outlook for the Fed to be the first to start to raise interest rates, and therefore for the US dollar to continue to firm into 2016 doesn't help the notion that export demand for US wheat might pick up either. The EU is struggling to dispose of its own record wheat crop so far this season, in the wake of strong competition from the Black Sea, and they will be only too keen to step into any void that might appear in the second half of the season if and when FSU supplies dry up a little. There's no sign of that just yet though. Ukraine's seaports exported more wheat than corn last week at 424.3 TMT versus 208.9 TMT. Those wheat exports were also up from 314.3 TMT the previous week. Russia meanwhile exported 529.9 TMT of grains via its seaports last week, and 405.5 TMT of that was wheat, up from wheat shipments of 396.3 TMT the previous week. The USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated 2015/16 winter wheat crop at 27.6 MMT, the largest since 1990. The USDA attaché in Russia pegged wheat production there this year at 60.5 MMT, with 2015/16 exports at a record 23.5 MMT. Even so, ending stocks at the end of the current season next Jun 30 will be 14% higher than they were a year previously at 7.13 MMT, they say. Ethiopia bought 856,000 MT of milling wheat in a tender for 1 MMT. Delivery will be spread over the next 4 months. Japan are in the market for their regular 129,600 MT combo of US, Canadian and Australian wheat. The USDA have US winter wheat planting at 88% complete, up 5 points from last week but 2 behind average. Crop conditions were raised 2 points in the good to excellent category to 49%. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.08, down 14 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.82 3/4, down 11 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.11 3/4, down 13 3/4 cents.
