Nogger's Blog

27/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower on the day, but higher for the week. Meal was a loser on both the day and for the week, and is currently the weakest leg of the complex. The USDA reported weekly export sales of 1,173,600 MT for 2015/16, down 35 percent from the previous week and 18 percent below the prior 4-week average. China (751,700 MT) was unsurprisingly the largest home, although the Netherlands (141,500 MT), Japan (76,200 MT), Turkey (67,800 MT), Taiwan (63,100 MT) and Spain (61,100 MT) were also featured buyers. Exports of 1,912,600 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 20 percent below the prior 4-week average, but still pretty decent. The primary destinations were China (1,297,400 MT), the Netherlands (141,500 MT), Taiwan (73,600 MT), Spain (61,100 MT) and South Korea (57,900 MT). Dryness in parts of Brazil is still a problem. In the northeastern part of Mato Grosso state, IMEA say that soybean planting is only 66% complete. "Even in central Mato Grosso planting has been delayed as much as thirty days compared to normal and farmers are concerned that the soybean yield potential may have already been compromised," says Dr Cordonnier. Meanwhile wetness in the south of the country has also spilled over into neighbouring Argentina. Here the current soybean seeding pace is the second slowest since 2005 due to the persistent cool/wet planting period, with the greatest delays in the state of Cordoba. Ukraine said that their 2015 soybean harvest is over at 3.76 MMT. Ukraine winter rapeseed emergence is only placed at 86%, of which 32% is rated weak/thinned. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.73, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.75 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $282.40, down $2.40; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 28.75, down 14 points. For the week, Jan 16 beans were 15 1/2 cents higher, Dec 15 meal was 60 cents lower and Dec 15 oil gained 85 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-7 cents lower on the day, and with losses of 2 1/2 to 4 cents on the week. Trade was thin as it frequently is on the day after Thanksgiving, with many traders taking the opportunity to have an extended break. Weekly export sales of 2,036,300 MT for 2015/16 were a marketing-year high, and up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (1,112,100 MT), unknown destinations (269,100 MT), Japan (196,700 MT), Colombia (88,600 MT), Peru (79,300 MT) and South Korea (73,200 MT). There were also impressive sales of 528,500 MT for 2016/17 for Mexico (487,700 MT) and Japan (58,900 MT), with a few downwards revisions for Panama (-13,500 MT) and Nicaragua (-4,600 MT). Exports of 531,700 MT were up 37 percent from the previous week and 34 percent above the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (281,400 MT) and Colombia (116,700 MT). Ukraine said that their 2015 corn harvest was 95% done on 3.9 million ha for a crop of 21.82 MMT to date. The USDA have final production there at 23 MMT. France said that their corn harvest was 99% complete versus 97% a year ago. The EU Commission estimated the EU-28 corn crop down 26.2%, or -20.4 MMT, at 57.5 MMT. They see EU-28 corn exports in 2015/16 at 2.5 MMT versus 4.0 MMT last season. Reuters reported that China is to cut government support prices for corn by a further 10%. This will likely result in reduced Chinese sorghum, DDGs and barley imports, traders say. The FAO estimated China's 2015 corn crop at 221 MMT, down 4 MMT from previously and also 4 MMT below the current USDA estimate. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.59 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.67 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents. For the week, Dec 15 corn was 4 cents lower and Mar 16 lost 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day, but mixed for the week. Chicago wheat is the weakest leg and Minneapolis the strongest. The USDA reported weekly export sales for wheat of 303,700 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, down 58 percent from the previous week and 23 percent below the prior 4-week average. There were also sales of 22,000 MT for 2016/17. On old crop unknown destinations (109,600 MT), Mexico (63,600 MT), Japan (50,300 MT), South Korea (38,600 MT) and the United Arab Emirates (25,000 MT) were featured buyers. The market continues to get information like this highlighting what everybody already knows - US wheat is simply too dear to feature into all but traditional (and usually nearby) homes. The EU Commission estimated this year's EU-28 soft wheat crop at 149.1 MMT, down slightly from 149.2 MMT a month ago, but up a tad on 148.7 MMT a year ago and a record crop. They see EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2015/16 at 27.9 MMT, a 16.2% drop compared to 33.3 MMT in 2014/15. EU-28 2015/16 soft wheat ending stocks will leap 6.6 MMT to 17.5 MMT, they predict. Russia's Ag Ministry dropped their forecast for the 2015 grain crop there by 0.5 MMT to 101.5 MMT in clean weight. That's down 3.6% on a year ago, although that was a post-Soviet era record. Their 2015 harvest is said to be now 99% complete at 108.3 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 64.0 MMT of wheat and 18.3 MMT of barley. France said that it's winter wheat crop for the 2016 harvest was 99% sown, 94% emerged and 44% at the early tillering stage. They estimate that 98% of the crop is currently in good to very good condition versus 93% this time a year ago. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.65 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.50, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.10, down 4 1/2 cents. For the week, that means that nearby Chicago wheat fell 22 3/4 cents, with the market in Kansas 7 cents lower and Minneapolis up 1 1/4 cents.