Nogger's Blog

12/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. Demand remains good. The USDA announced 300,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. There's talk that China’s November bean imports could reach 6.5-7.0 MMT, up from 5.53 MMT in October. That would take imports in the first 11 months of the calendar year to around 72 MMT. The USDA's regular weekly export sales report is delayed a day until tomorrow. The trade is looking for bean sales of around 600,000 MT to 1 MMT along with meal sales of maybe 150-350 TMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentine soybean planting progress at around 20% complete versus 8.7% complete a week ago and 16.8% a year ago. CGG Trading said Brazilian farmers have already sold 50% of their 2015/16 bean crop. Egypt's GASC cancelled a tender to buy soybean oil and sunflower oil for December shipment citing high prices. The NOPA October crush report comes out on Monday. The trade is looking for a crush figure of around 161 million bushels versus 157.96 million a year previously. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.69 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.63, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $291.40, down $2.60; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.44, up 26 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with minor losses of a fraction of a cent. Fresh news was pretty scarce. The one day delayed weekly ethanol production report from the US Energy Dept showed output up 13,000 barrels per day versus last week to 982,000 barrels per day. The Rosario’s Grain Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2015/16 corn crop at 20.2 MMT, down 22% from last year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that planting is 36.5% complete, up only marginally from 35.9% complete a week ago. They estimate Argentina’s final corn planted area at 2.72 million ha, unchanged from previously and down 20% from 3.4 million ha in 2014/15. CGG Trading said Brazilian farmers have already sold 45% of their 2015/16 corn crop, which is a record for this time of year. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country's 2015 corn harvest now stands at 20.27 MMT off 89% of the planned area. Russia's corn harvest is said to be 85.2% complete at 11.9 MMT. FranceAgriMer estimated France’s 2015/16 corn crop at 13.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They see 2015/16 ending stocks at 2.3 MMT, also unchanged from previously. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report on corn are 450-650,000 MT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.62, down 1/4 cent; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.69 1/2, down 1/2 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Demand for US wheat remains slack in the face of strong global competition from the Black Sea, Europe and elsewhere. The firm US dollar doesn't help. Weekly export sales tomorrow are only called to be in the region of 200-350 TMT. Japan bought 119,415 MT of food wheat for February shipment split between US, Canadian and Australian origin. The Rosario’s Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2015/16 wheat crop at 9.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 9.3 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that the 2015/16 Argentine wheat harvest was 7.1% complete versus 4.5% a week ago. They estimated Argentina’s wheat crop at 9.5 MMT, unchanged from previously and down 19% from 11.75 MMT in 2014/15. The USDA's attaché in China estimated the country's 2015/16 wheat crop at a record high 130 MMT. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat for January shipment and are tendering for a similar volume of option origin barley for April shipment. The results of an Algerian wheat tender for January shipment are imminent. FranceAgriMer estimated France’s 2015/16 soft wheat stocks at 5.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 4.8 MMT and now more than double what they were at the end of 2014/15. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.98, up 3 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.63 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.05 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.