Nogger's Blog

03/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed little changed. Informa estimated US 2015 soybean production at 3.952 billion bushels, with a yield figure of 47.9 bu/acre. FC Stone had 2015 US soybean production 3.917 billion bu and yields at 47.5 bu/acre yesterday. The USDA were 3.888 billion bu and 47.2 bu/acre last month. Now that the 2015 US harvest is winding down, we turn our attention to developments in South America. The Argentine Ministry reported farmer selling on 2014/15 beans at 74% complete versus 67% a year ago. On new crop they say that growers are 1.3% sold, about the same as this time last year. Dr Cordonnier said that the first good rains of the season had arrived in central areas of Brazil over the weekend, hastening planting, which he believes have now "turned a corner". Sowings were even more retarded in central areas a year ago and the country still went on to produce a record crop of course. There were no daily sales announcements from the USDA today. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.78 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.79, up 1/4 cent; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $301.30, down $0.90; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 28.15, up 30 points.

Corn: The corn market closed higher in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. Corn got a shot in the arm as crude oil jumped on production concerns in Libya and Brazil. Informa estimated US 2015 corn yields at 170.1 bu/acre with production at 13.718 billion bu. FC Stone estimated US 2015 corn yields at 168.0 bu/acre, with production at 13.543 billion bu yesterday. The USDA were 168.0 bu/acre and 13.555 billion bu in October. US corn exports remain a bit sluggish, due to fierce competition from South America and the Black Sea region. Brazilian trade data shows that they exported a record 5.547 MMT of corn last month, up more than 60% from September’s 3.455 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 79% sold on their old crop corn versus 83% a year ago, and around 3% committed on new crop - about the same as 12 months ago. The notion that opposition leader Macri is now a fairly hot favourite to win the Argentine presidential run-off at the end of the month leans bearish for corn. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest was now 78.5% complete at 11.0 MMT. That implies final production of a record 14 MMT. Delays to winter wheat planting in Russia and Ukraine potentially means an increased corn area for 2016. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.80 1/2, up 4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.88 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market posted some decent gains. CBH Group estimated Western Australia's wheat crop at 7.8 MMT versus a previous forecast of 8.4 MMT. The USDA's FAS in Canada put this year's wheat crop there at 26.0 MMT, down 11% on a year ago, with 2015/16 exports falling 17% to 20.0 MMT. Russia said that it's 2015 wheat and barley harvests were both 99.8% complete at 63.8 MMT and 18.2 MMT respectively. Attention there is now turning to winter plantings and production prospects for 2016. The Russian Ag Ministry said that winter grain plantings are 92% complete on 15.8 million ha (versus 16.4 million ha a year ago at this time). Some 25% of what has been sown is in poor condition due to drought, according to their Ag Minister. In Ukraine, an estimated 85% of the intended winter grain crop has been sown so far versus 96% a year ago. UkrAgroConsult say that only 27% of Ukraine winter wheat is "good" and that 32% is weak or thinned, There's talk of this being similar to conditions in the winter of 2011. Production in 2012 ultimately went on to fall by almost 30%. The Ukraine analysts currently say that wheat production there in 2016 could dive by a similar percentage to only 19 MMT. Algeria bought 350,000 MT of durum wheat in a tender, thought most likely to be of Canadian origin. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.16 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.87 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.19 3/4, up 8 cents.