Chicago Grains Manage Modest Rises
19/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. Weekly export inspections of 1.8 MMT were up 39 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. China took virtually the lot. That easily beat trade estimates for sales of 700,000 MT to 1.1 MMT. Exports of 2,271,000 MT were still impressive even if they were down 9 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination was China (1,747,800 MT). Meal sales came in at 224,100 MT - in line with expectations. South Korea's MFG bought 60,000 MT of optional origin (thought most likely to be from Brazil) soy meal for June shipment. Argentina’s presidential election run-off takes place on Sunday, with opposition leader Macri expected to win, potentially lowering grain and soybean export taxes. MDA CropCast were unchanged on both their global and US 2015/16 soybean production forecasts from a week ago. They have this year's US crop at 3.9 billion bushels, and see production in Brazil at 99.9 MMT and in Argentina at 59.57 MMT. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.60, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.63, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $286.60, up $1.00; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.55, up 11 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents higher. Weekly export sales of 779,800 MT for 2015/16 were a marketing-year high, being up 26 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. They also beat expectations of 500,000 to 700,000 MT. Exports of 389,000 MT were up 44 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. South Korea's KFA are tendering for 65,000 MT of optional origin corn for May shipment. There's talk of Chinese interest for US DDGs and sorghum. Israel bought 80,000 MT of optional origin corn (probably from the Black Sea) for Feb-April shipment. MDA CropCast were unchanged on the 2015 US corn crop at 13.78 billion bushels. They have Brazil at 79.6 MMT and Argentina at 25.4 MMT. They trimmed their EU-28 2015/16 corn production forecast to 55.2 MMT. Strategie Grains estimated 2015 EU corn crop at 57.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.1 MMT. The Russian corn harvest is 87% complete at 12.2 MMT. The Ukraine corn harvest is 92% complete at almost 21 MMT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.64 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.70 1/4, up 2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, aided for once by weekly export sales beating trade forecasts. These came in at 721,900 MT versus the anticipated range of only 200,000 to 400,000 MT. That was the best weekly total since the last week of July. Thailand (108,000 MT), Nigeria (103,100 MT), Taiwan (92,000 MT), Japan (90,600 MT) and the Philippines (79,800 MT) were featured buyers. Exports of 347,000 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average too. One swallow doesn't make a summer though. Israel bought 30,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat (most likely from the Black Sea) for Feb-March shipment. Japan bought 114,491 MT of food wheat for Feb shipment in its regular weekly tender - split between US and Canadian origin. Strategie Grains estimated 2015 EU soft wheat production at 149.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 149.5 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that they had agreed with traders to limit wheat exports in 2015/16 to 16.6 MMT. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.90 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.62 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents.
