Chicago Grains Mixed - After Front Month Soybean Hit Lowest Since Mar 2009
17/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains, but not before Jan 16 had posted the lowest price for a front month since Mar 2009. Brazilian plantings are still a bit retarded, but catching up. Safras e Mercado said that as of Nov 13 Brazilian farmers had planted 56% of their 2015/16 soybean crop versus 42% a week ago and 68% on average at this time. Mato Grasso soybean planting progress was 83% complete, up from 60% done a week previously. Oil World said that an anticipated victory for opposition leader Macri in this weekend's Argentine presidential run-off could be more bearish for corn and wheat than beans. They think that this might herald a return to more traditional crop rotation in Argentina. Dr Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian 2015/16 soybean crop at 100.0 MMT and pegged Argentina's at 58 MMT, both unchanged from his previous estimates. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.64, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.65, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $288.50, down $0.30; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.47, up 18 points.
Corn: The corn market closed with small gains. Bloomberg reported that Brazilian growers have a record large percentage of their new crop corn already forward sold, encouraged by the weak Brazilian real. Dr Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 81.2 MMT and sees Argentine production at 21.6 MMT, both unchanged from his previous estimates. Russia said that their 2015 corn harvest was 86.6% complete at 12.2 MMT. Israel tendered for 80,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan/Feb shipment. Black Sea material is probably the favourite to win that business. Ukraine appear now to be concentrating their efforts on corn exports, although production this year has been hampered by dryness. Talk of reduced winter wheat, barley and rapeseed plantings and/or poor emergence issues in Ukraine could mean a sharp pick-up in spring plantings - at least some of which could be corn. We could therefore have a sharp rebound in production there in 2016. Crude oil is just about managing to keep its head above $40/barrel. OPEC are due to meet again in early December. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.62, up 2 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.68, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges. A wetter outlook for US winter wheat areas was seen as bearish today. South Korea rejected all offers in a tender for 34,900 MT of US wheat for March-April shipment due to "high prices". Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Feb-March shipment and a similar volume of optional origin barley for April shipment. Jordan's 2015/16 wheat imports are projected at 1.2 MMT, similar to those of last season. Top supplier in 2014/15 was Romania (667 TMT), followed by Russia (416 TMT). Japan are in the market for 114,491 MT of food wheat for Feb shipment. French silo operator Socomac have reportedly joined Senalia and Nord Cereales in suspending the intake of wheat at their operations in Rouen and Dunkirk due to lack of export demand. These are the only approved delivery points against the Paris wheat futures contract. Beneficial moisture and mild temperatures are in the forecast for the Russian and Ukrainian winter wheat areas. The Russian Ag Minister says that winter plantings there should still ultimately match last year's levels. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.87 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.63 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.01 3/4, down 3 cents.
