Chicago Markets All Post Weekly Losses

13/11/15 -- General: The markets continue to grind lower. The US corn and soybean harvests are in their last throes, and traditionally we should be looking for the market to put in a seasonal bottom around now. What's different about this year though is the general global economic malaise surrounding commodities - NYMEX crude closed within sight of $40/barrel tonight. There's also the unknown quantity that has opposition challenger Mauricio Macri as the new favourite to win the Argentine presidential run-off next weekend, turning agriculture in the country on it's head - if he wins and honours his pre-election promises that is. A recent article on Reuters said that Argentine grains output could grow by at least 30% by 2019 should this be the case. A win for Macri next Sunday could therefore add further downside to the grain markets at least in the short-term. The prospect for the US Fed to begin raising interest rates as early as next month is keeping the US dollar firm, adding further downside. The best hope of any upside potential still comes from winter grain losses in Russia and Ukraine, but these are many months yet from being easily quantifiable.

Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with the largest losses at the front-end. Weekly US export sales of 1,297,000 MT for 2015/16 were up 98 percent from the previous week, but still down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. China 1,166,200 MT) as ever was the main taker. Actual exports themselves of 2,485,700 MT remain robust. The primary destination was again China (1,935,300 MT). AgRural estimated Brazil's soybean planting progress at 60% complete, up from 47% last week, but behind 71% on average at this time. IMEA said Mato Grosso’s soybean planting is 83.7% complete versus 60.7% complete a week ago and about unchanged from a year ago. The FSA estimated US soybean plantings at 81.277 million acres (including failed) versus their October estimate of 81.079 million. Informa estimated US 2016 soybean plantings at a hefty 85.3 million acres versus a previous estimate of 83.9 million. The NOPA October crush will be released on Monday. The average trade estimate for that is around 161 million bu versus just under 158 million a year previously. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.59, down 10 1/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.55 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $288.80, down $2.60; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 27.04, down 40 points. For the week that puts front month beans 12 1/4 cents lower, with meal down $6.90 and oil shedding exactly 100 points.

Corn: The corn market settled around 3-4 cents lower. Declining crude oil prices are doing little to help corn's cause, and neither is the firm US dollar, weighing on exports. That said, weekly export sales of 618,600 MT for 2015/16 were not too bad, being up 11 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was at the upper end of trade estimates of 450-650,000 MT. Actual exports of 270,900 MT though were down 45 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. The FSA reported US 2015 corn plantings (including failed) at 85.033 million acres versus their October estimate of 84.811 million. Informa estimated US 2016 corn plantings at 90.1 million acres versus a previous estimate of 90.8 million. South Korea's KFA bought 60,000 MT of South American origin corn for April shipment. Ukraine said that its 2015 corn harvest was 89% done at 20.27 MMT. That suggests a final crop of 22.78 MMT, close to the USDA's revised estimate of 23 MMT. Russia's corn harvest is said to be 85.5% complete at 11.9 MMT. The French corn harvest was said to be 92% complete as of Monday, up from 86% a week previously and 4 points ahead of this time last year. Weekly CFTC data detailing the commitment of traders is delayed until Monday due to the Veterans Day holiday. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, down 4 cents. For the week Dec 15 was down 14 3/4 cents and Mar 16 fell 16 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The market closed mixed, but lower across the board for the week. Weekly export sales of only 226,670 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 (despite being up noticeably from the previous week's paltry effort), were down 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 239,300 MT were down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The firm US dollar and strong competition from the Black Sea and Europe among others continues to weigh on US exports. The FSA reported US wheat plantings for the 2015 harvest (including failed) at 52.673 million acres versus their October estimate of 52.507 million. Informa estimated the US winter wheat planted area for the 2016 harvest at 38.7 million acres. South Korea reportedly seek 59,800 MT of US or Canadian wheat for Feb-April shipment. Algeria were said to have bought 550,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for January shipment, most probably French origin. Russia said that it's 2015 winter wheat harvest was 99.8% done at 63.9 MMT in bunker weight. The barley harvest is said to be 99.9% complete at 18.3 MMT. Winter grain plantings for the 2016 harvest are said to have now been completed on 16.2 million ha, or just under 95% of the original government forecast. A year ago at this time plantings were complete on 16.6 million ha. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.95 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.65 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.04 1/4, down 1 cent. For the week Chicago wheat was down 27 1/2 cents, Kansas lost 24 3/4 cents and Minneapolis slid 14 1/2 cents.