Chicago Soymeal Ends At Near 4-Year Lows
06/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains on the day, but lower for the week. Meal finished at the lowest on a front month in almost 4 years. There was maybe a bit of light pre-weekend short-covering and position-squaring today ahead of Tuesday's upcoming WASDE report from the USDA. The average trade estimate for US 2015 soybean production now seems to be around 3.914 billion bushels with yields at 47.5 bu/acre versus the USDA’s October numbers of 3.888 billion and 47.2 bu/acre, according to a Bloomberg survey. Not much change is expected in the level of US or world ending stocks. A survey by Reuters shows that the trade expects 2015/16 US ending stocks at 435 million bushels versus the USDA's October estimate of 425 million. The same survey shows world ending stocks at 85.32 MMT versus the USDA's October estimate of 85.14 MMT. FCStone were reported to have decreased their Brazilian soybean production estimate by 0.65 MMT to 100.45 MMT, although that's still slightly higher than the USDA's 100 MMT estimate. Plantings in Brazil are still a bit slow in northern and central areas. "AgRural reported that farmers in Mato Grosso had plated 38% of their anticipated soybeans as of late last week, which is approximately 20 percent behind the average planting pace," said Dr Cordonnier. Nov 15 Soybeans settled at $8.71 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.67 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $295.70, down $0.70; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 28.04, up 21 points. For the week Nov 15 beans were 12 1/2 cents lower, Dec 15 meal fell $8.70 and Dec 15 oil was 16 points lower. Meal remains particularly weak, this was the lowest close on a front month since late 2011, although beans aren't too far above multi-year lows either.
Corn: The corn market closed slightly lower on the day, and with losses of the best part of 10 cents for the week. For Tuesday's WASDE report the average trade guess is for production at 13.564 billion bu (the USDA were 13.555 billion last month) and a yield of 168.2 bu/acre (the USDA were 168.0 bu/acre in October). A Reuters survey shows that the average trade estimate for 2015/16 world ending stocks is 188.43 MMT versus the USDA's October figure of 187.83 MMT. US ending stocks are estimated at an average 1.597 billion bushels versus the USDA's October forecast of 1.561 billion. The Reuters survey also predicts higher US production (13.579 billion bushels) and yields (168.4 bu/acre) than the Bloomberg one. Ukraine's 2015 corn harvest meanwhile is now said to be 85% complete on 3.5 million ha for a crop of 18.8 MMT so far. That implies final production of around 22.1 MMT versus the current USDA estimate of 25 MMT. The Russian 2015 corn harvest was reported at 80.1% complete on 2.2 million ha for a crop of 11.2 MMT so far. Yields are said to be averaging 5.15 MT/ha versus 4.53 MT/ha a year ago and the current USDA prediction of 5.00 MT/ha. The 2015 French corn harvest was said to be 86% done as of Monday, up 11 points on the week and 12 points ahead of a year ago. The Ukraine Ag Ministry say that total corn exports so far this season total 3.0 MMT. The EU reported that they'd approved 442 TMT of corn import licences this week - more than the combined total for wheat and barley exports for the second week running. The US dollar did corn no favours today, rallying sharply following a strong US jobs report. US corn exports are already pretty sluggish. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.73, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.81 3/4, down 1 cent. For the week that puts Dec 15 corn 9 1/4 cents lower, with Mar 16 down 9 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed on the day and for the week. Chicago wheat has been supported all week relative to the Kansas market, so today was perhaps a mini correction of that trend. Next week's WASDE report isn't expected to throw up any big surprises in wheat, essentially re-enforcing the record global supply and ending stocks situation. A Reuters survey of trade analysts shows 2015/16 world ending stocks estimated at 227.82 MMT, little changed from the USDA's October estimate of 228.49 MMT. The same survey predicts US ending stocks at 861 million bushels, completely unchanged from a month ago. The EU reports that soft wheat export licences there are now running 31% behind year ago levels, despite euro weakness. At the end of July cumulative soft wheat export licences were up 23% compared to 2014, by the end of August they were down 17%, at the end of September they were 23.5% lower and now things are 31% behind a year ago with a record crop to dispose of.Yet the USDA currently predicts EU wheat exports to only fall by less than 7% year-on-year this season. Concerns over winter wheat conditions in Ukraine and Russia seem to be enough to keep wheat shorts a bit nervous for now, which may be enough to underpin downside, even if US and EU exports are very sluggish. There were rumours circulating today that the Ukraine government might be about to introduce an "informal" cap on wheat exports, such is their concern over the state of the newly planted winter crop. APK Inform said that Ukraine growers might only sow only around 5.5 million ha of winter wheat this year, some 19% less than a year ago, and that production in 2016 could fall by a third to 16.7 MMT. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.23 1/4, down 3 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.90 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.18 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents. For the week that leaves Chicago wheat up 1 1/4 cents, with the Kansas market down 3 1/2 cents and Minneapolis down 1 3/4 cents.
