Nogger's Blog

14/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 1.344 MMT, down 22% from the week before but still fairly decent. The cumulative season-to-date pace lags last year's record by almost 10%. The NOPA crush for November is due out tomorrow, with the average trade guess for that lining up at 161.7 million bushels. New Argentine president Macri stood be his promises and trimmed 5% off the soybean export tax as expected. The Argentine Ag Ministry reported that growers there are 77.3% sold on their old crop beans versus 71.94% done a year ago. On new crop they are said to be 4.1% committed against 3.9% a year ago. The USDA have pencilled in a 2016 US soybean acreage of 82 million, down 1.2 million from their previous forecast. The preliminary yield estimate for next year is 46.7 bu/acre. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.74 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.76, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $277.80, up $5.60; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 31.30, up 22 points.

Corn: The corn market closed generally around 4 cents higher, save for expiring front month Dec 14 which finished up 8 3/4 cents. Weekly export inspections of 566,835 MT for the week ending last Thursday, were up 13% from the previous week. On a season so far basis though cumulative inspections are down 23% on this time last year. Argentine president Macri said that he would today sign a decree abolishing the current export tax on corn. The Argentine Ag Ministry reported that growers there are 84.9% sold on their old crop corn versus 90.8% done a year ago. On new crop they are said to be 7.4% committed against 12.6% a year ago. Israel are said to be tendering for 80,000 MT of optional origin corn and 20,000 MT of sorghum for Mar/May shipment. The USDA suggested US 2016 corn acres of 90.5 million, up 0.5 million from previously, and 2 million above this year. Early ideas on yields are 168.1 bu/acre. Ukraine seaports were said to have shipped out 459.6 TMT worth of corn last week (or 55.5% of all grain exports). Russian seaports shipped out 100.2 TMT of corn, or 15.8% of all grain exports. Ukraine said that their corn harvest is now over at just shy of 23 MMT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.81 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.79, up 3 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 2-5 cents firmer. Weekly export sales of 434,676 MT were a lot better than last week's miserable effort. So far this season though cumulative exports still lag a year ago by 14.5%. Argentine also cut their wheat export tax to zero today, giving rise to the notion that they will be a bit more of a threat going forward. The Argentine Ag Ministry reported that growers there are 9.5% sold on their new crop wheat versus 90.8% done a year ago. There are reports of heat and dryness delaying winter grain planting in India, with 44.23 million ha sown so far, down 4.43 million ha on a year ago. Wheat plantings are currently down 16.5% at 20.2 million ha versus 24.2 million a year ago. The USDA predict US wheat plantings at only 53 million ha next year, the lowest in 43 years. Taiwan bought 87,000 MT of US wheat in a tender for Jan/Feb shipment. Russia said that they'd exported 17.8 MMT of grains so far this season (down 6% on a year ago) and that 75% of that (13.39 MMT) was wheat. Ukraine said that they'd shipped out 18.71 MMT of grains so far, or which 50% (9.34 MMT) was wheat. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be planted on 92% of the original government target at 5.68 million ha, with around 67.5% of the crop in good to satisfactory condition. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.93 1/2, up 3 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.88, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.10 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents.