Chicago Grains Close Friday
11/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans, meal and oil all closed lower on the day and for the week. CONAB raised their Brazilian soybean production estimate by 0.5 MMT to 102.5 MMT, now some 2.5 MMT above what the USDA gave us on Wednesday, and 6.5% above the 96.2 MMT record of a year ago. The fact that they appear to be exporting these large volumes of beans without too many logistical hiccups - something that was almost unimaginable a few years ago - suggests that there is no reason to believe that they can't do it again in the new season ahead. Brazil's 2015/16 soybean exports were estimated at 57.5 MMT, up from 55 MMT previously. Plantings this year are still a bit retarded though. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) report that 97.4% of the crop in Brazil's largest soybean state has been planted. AgRural pegged soybean plantings at 93% complete nationally compared to last week’s 88% and the long term average of 98% done at this time. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on beans found things fairly evenly split, with 7 Bullish, 8 Bearish and 6 Neutral. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.70 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.73 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $272.20, down $2.00; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 31.08, down 43 points. For the week nearby beans ended with losses of 37 1/4 cents, meal was down $12.90 and oil fell 72 points.
Corn: The corn market closed lower on the day and for the week. CONAB raised their Brazilian 2015/16 corn production estimate a little to 82 MMT, some 0.5 MMT more than the USDA predicted on Wednesday, but still down from 84.7 MMT a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that corn plantings are about 50% done in Argentina. Argentina’s new Finance Minister suggested that the country will begin lowering export taxes on ag products such as corn and wheat next week. Coceral said that EU corn production this year is seen 22% lower at 58.5 MMT. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was limping along at 12.9 MMT off 91.4% of the planned area. APK Inform lowered their estimate for the Ukraine 2015 corn harvest to 22 MMT, down 23% on 28.5 MMT a year ago. They see 2015/16 Ukraine corn exports down 30% year-on-year at only 13.6 MMT. Brussels issued 383,667 MT worth of EU corn import licences last week, up 24% from a week ago, and that takes the season so far total to 5.1 MMT. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on corn found things fairly evenly split, with 7 Bullish, 6 Bearish and 8 Neutral. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.73, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.75 1/4, down 4 cents. For the week, Dec 15 corn was down 3 1/4 cents and Mar 16 fell 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed on the day and for the week. EU wheat exports continue to zig and zag, but are generally making up some early season lost ground. The outlook for more euro weakness and dollar strength ahead in 2016 doesn't augur too well for US wheat export hopes. Russia said that their 2015 grain harvest is still not quite over yet, at 99.1% complete for a crop of 108.7 MMT in bunker weight so far. That includes 64 MMT of wheat and 18.3 MMT of barley. Winter plantings for the 2016 Russian harvest are stalled at 16.3 million ha, some 500,000 ha than this time last year and a touch over 95$ of the original government forecast. Continued weakness in crude oil values is weighing on the Russian rouble, meaning that the current export duty on wheat does kick in, albeit at only a relatively modest level of around $3/tonne, which shouldn't hurt Russian exporters too much. The Russian authorities estimate the area of winter crops in poor condition at around 1.8 million ha. Rusagrotrans estimate that maybe 0.8-1.2 million ha could be lost to winter-kill, down from 1.65 million a year ago. Coceral released their latest EU crop production forecasts, placing the soft wheat crop there at a record 150.3 MMT, up 1.2% from 148.5 MMT a year ago. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on wheat was slanted in favour of the bulls, with 10 Bullish, 5 Bearish and 6 Neutral. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.82 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.68 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.98 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat up 11 1/2 cents, with Kansas up 19 cents and Minneapolis down 30 cents.
