Nogger's Blog

30/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4-5 cents firmer. The market seems torn between ongoing dryness in Brazil's Mato Grosso and other northern states, and the potential for Argentina to regain some lost ground as far as exports go under the new Macri leadership. "Brazil’s tropical drought has worsened from mid to late December, now affecting the majority of soybeans. Rainfall deficits of 100-200 millimeters (4-8 inches) have accrued in Mato Grosso, the leading soybean state. Bahia, Goias, Tocantins and Minas Gerais have also succumbed to severe drought," say Martell Crop Projections. Daytime highs near 100 F as well as due to reducing showers have less evaporative cooling, they add. Argentina removed export quotas on corn and wheat overnight. There's talk that they may be gearing up to sell old beans aggressively before the 2015/16 Brazilian harvest begins. Trade ideas for tomororrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the 750,000 to 850,000 MT region. The next monthly USDA crush report is due out on Monday. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.75 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.70 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $265.80, down $2.70; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.84, up 32 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents or so weaker. The news out of Argentina that not only are export duties on corn now history, but so to are quotas confirmed the market's fears. Ideas are now that the will soon become a very aggressive seller, especially following the demise of the peso since the recent elections. Weekly US ethanol production for Christmas week came in at a respectable 992,000 barrels per day, up 19,000 barrels per day from the week. Ethanol stocks were reported at 20.2 million barrels, down 200,000 barrels from the week before. US flooding is reported to be starting to peak along parts of the Mississippi. South Korea's KFA bought 50,000 MT of South American corn in a tender for 65,000 MT of any origin and were reported to have paid $180.99 C&F. Ukraine say that they will remain a keen corn exporter in 2015/16, despite a much lower crop there this year. Trade ideas for tomororrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the 600,000 and 650,000 MT region. Sales last week were 803,600 MT. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.59, down 3 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 5-7 cents lower across the three exchanges. The Russian rouble fell to a new all-time low versus the US dollar today, making US wheat's job of competing even more difficult. The rouble is down around 12% versus the US in the last 2 months. There's some talk of possible winter-kill damage to Russian and Ukraine winter grains, although more seasonal heavier snow cover is now moving into the region. Egypt said that it aims to be 80% self-sufficient in wheat by 2018. Jordan were said to have purchased 100,000 MT of wheat of origin unknown, for $218/ton C&F. The US weather forecast is dry in the upcoming week in most areas of the heartland, a welcome change that would allow flood waters to abate, reported Martell Crop Projections. There's talk of a possible cold snap being on the cards for Eastern Europe across the next couple of weeks. "Winter crops were prevented from gaining frost tolerance due to the mild temperatures in these regions, and are now potentially exposed to frost kill if temperatures abruptly move to seasonal values," MARS recently warned. Weekly export sales of only 250-300,000 MT are expected tomorrow. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.76 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.75 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.01, down 5 3/4 cents.