Chicago Grains Closing Comments - Tuesday
15/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The NOPA crush for November came in below expectations, totalling 156.1 million bu (161.7 million expected) and down from 158.9 million in October. This was said to be the smallest November crush in four years. The USDA’s total crush number for the season being 17 million bu higher than last year is now becoming suspect, said Benson Quinn. Excessive wetness in parts of South America remain an issue, whilst dryness is a problem in some other areas. The USDA reported 120,000 MT of US beans were sold to China for 2015/16 delivery under the daily reporting system. Ukraine said that they'd already exported 91% of their rapeseed surplus from this year's depleted crop by the end of November. Reduced rapeseed crushings in Europe this season could lead to increased demand for soybeans. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.67 1/4, down 7 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.67 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $271.80, down $3.70; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.70, down 42 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or two lower. Argentine corn offers are said to be sharpening up now that new President Macri is in charge and apparently sticking to his promises to cut export taxes on grains. There's still talk of a late surge in Argentine corn plantings taking 2015/16 production up to around 27-28 MMT. US dollar strength ahead of tomorrow's anticipated Fed interest rate increase was another negative today. Rusagrotrans said that Russia would export 450,000 MT of corn this month, taking Jul 1 - Dec 31 (first half 2015/16) exports to 1.77 MMT, up 59% versus 1.11 MMT a year previously. There's continued talk of China sharply reducing domestic support prices for corn, which might cut acreage by 10% next year. "At face value, taking the internal corn price from $9.25 to $6 per bushel and reducing acreage 10% should significantly stimulate the nearby demand side of the equation. Question is what is the quality of all the corn in reserve storage?" asked Benson Quinn. Certainly some of these government-owned stocks will be 3-4 years old, and some probably more than that. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.77 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.82 1/4, down 2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains. Current prices seem to be stimualting global demand, but how many will end up buying US wheat is questionable. Algeria were said likely to have ended up buying 800,000 MT in last week's purchase originally reported at 500-600,000 MT. It's being mooted that as many as three cargoes of that may have been Argentine origin material, not the usual clean sweep for the French. Ethiopia are also said to be in the market for 70,000 MT wheat. Jordan are looking for 100,000 MT of hard wheat and Syria for 200,000 MT of soft milling wheat. Meanwhile Japan are tendering for their regular 123,275 MT consignment of what this week is only US and Canadian wheat for Jan/Mar shipment. Lanworth forecast next year's Russian wheat crop at 58.5 MMT. The Russian Ag Ministry estimated this year's grain crop at 103.4 MMT in clean weight, including 61.2 MMT of wheat. They see grain production at 104 MMT and wheat output at 60.4 MMT next year. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.00 1/4, up 1 cent; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $5.02, up 3 3/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents.
