Nogger's Blog

24/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite weekly export sales of 2,069,700 MT for 2015/16 being up noticeably from the previous week and 99 percent from the prior 4-week average. That more or less doubled trade expectations for sales of 850,000 MT and 1.1 MMT and was the best total in 12 weeks. China took more than 1.5 MMT of that total. Exports of 1,619,100 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination again was China (1,039,900 MT). Meal sales of 252,500 MT for 2015/2016 were also up noticeably from the previous week and up 51 percent from the prior 4-week average, coming at the top end of trade ideas of 100,000 – 250,000 MT. Talk of rain relief for northern/central Brazil seemed to usurp all of that today. Developments in Argentina add to the bearish vibe in the market at the moment. Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.75 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.73, down 7 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal closed at $269.00, down $3.40; Jan 16 Soybean Oil closed at 30.87, up 35 points. For the holiday shortened week that puts front month beans 17 cents lower, with meal down $12.00 and oil up 34 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower on the day and in the region of 10 cents easier for the week. Weekly export sales were seen as a mixed bag. At 803,600 MT for 2015/16 these were up 39 percent from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. They did however beat trade expectations of 500,000 and 750,000 MT and last week's 579,449 MT total. Increases were reported for Mexico (323,600 MT), Colombia (159,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (143,700 MT), Japan (143,100 MT), El Salvador (79,500 MT), Panama (36,300 MT) and Jamaica (34,500 MT). Exports of 823,600 MT were though a marketing-year high, up 66 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. Separately, South Korea's Kocopia were reported to have bought 55,000 MT of US origin corn for April shipment. The trade remains nervous that recent developments in Argentina are a sign that the corn export floodgates there are soon to about to open. Rain relief talk in northern/central Brazil also adds pressure in a market that will be glad to see the end of 2015. Will 2016 bring anything better? Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.64 1/2, down 1 cent; May 16 Corn closed at $3.70 3/4, down 1 cent. For the week that puts Mar 16 corn exactly 10 cents lower, with May 16 down 9 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower - in line with the other markets. Weekly export sales of 370,300 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average, but still less than stellar. Trade expectations were for sales of 250-500,000 MT. Increases were reported for Japan (94,800 MT), Mexico (87,900 MT), Nigeria (54,700 MT), Yemen (47,300 MT), Guatemala (34,400 MT), Ecuador (20,000 MT) and Colombia (19,200 MT). Exports of 407,300 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. The trade is still digesting the news that Argentine wheat is now the cheapest global offer, based on yesterday's Egyptian tender at least. Priced around $175/tonne before freight, it easily beat the most competitive French and Russian bids, leaving US wheat hopelessly stranded. "It's the equivalent to $4.30-4.40 a bushel basis March," said one US analyst. Morocco announced that it was to cut the import duty on wheat from 50% to 30%. Egypt said that following yesterday's purchase they now have enough wheat bought to last them until the first week of May. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.67 1/2, down 2 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.67 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.95, down 1 3/4 cents. For the week that puts CBOT wheat 25 1/2 cents lower, with Kansas down 24 3/4 cents and Minneapolis falling 22 1/2 cents.