Chicago Grains Grind Lower On Ample Supplies
22/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite lingering drought talk in Brazil's top producing Mato Grosso state, where moisture deficits range from 47% to 53% of normal, according to Martell Crop Projections. Focus seemed to shift today to slacker demand and more than ample global supplies. The outlook in Brazil is still for a record crop in 2015/16, and world carryout is seen up 6.3% at the end of the season, having risen 24.1% the season before that and 11.3% the season prior to that. That puts 2015/16 world inventories at 82.58 MMT - the largest on record and more than 49% higher than they were back in 2012/13. Let's hope that Chinese demand remains at the oft quoted "insatiable" levels! Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.85 1/4, down 6 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.85 1/2, down 6 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $276.90, down $2.10; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.44, down 33 points.
Corn: The corn market closed lower for a second straight session. It too is concerned about relatively slack demand for US product, with cumulative season-to-date export inspections reported at 22% smaller than last year yesterday. US dollar strength, and the outlook for further gains in 2016 is also a problem in that respect, as too are crude oil prices hovering around multi-year lows. The world stocks situation for corn is similar to that for beans too. Carryout in 2015/16 is seen up 1.8% at 211.85 MMT, but that is 59.4% higher than the total we were looking at back in 2012/13. Ukraine's corn exports in November were reported at 1.853 MMT, down 17% versus November 2014. October to November corn exports were said to be down 7% than the same period a year ago. Production there is about 19% lower this year, according to the USDA. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.66 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.72 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Three record large world wheat crops in a row and global stocks up almost 30% compared to 2012/13 paint a picture of very ample supplies. And US inventories in particular are struggling to find homes in the face of fierce competition from elsewhere around the globe: Europe, the Black Sea, Canada, Australia and new kid back on the block Argentina. Prospects for a firmer US dollar again in the New Year therefore don't help. YTD US export inspections are already nearly 14% smaller than last year, as reported by the USDA yesterday. They are currently only predicted to be 3.3% down at the end of the season. Morocco tendered for 150,000 MT of domestic wheat. Egypt tendered for an unspecified volume of wheat for January 21-31 delivery late in the day, with the results expected tomorrow afternoon. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.79, down 7 1/4 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.81, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.06 1/4, down 5 cents.
