Chicago Grains Rally

03/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. Weekly export sales of 878,300 MT for 2015/16 are showing signs of tailing off a little, being down 25 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. They were also at the low end of trade forecasts of 800,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. China (521,500 MT) was the main home. Actual weekly shipments of just over 2 MMT were decent. The primary destination again was China (1,349,900 MT). The USDA also reported 132,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. The FAO raised their forecast for the global 2015/16 soybean crop by 3 MMT to 322 MMT, which now beats last season's all time high. Ending stocks were reduced by 2 MT however to 49 MMT, but still up 3 MMT versus 2014/15. "In Brazil, planting has begun in most regions and conditions are mostly favourable owing to consistent rainfall in the main producing regions. However, there are some concerns over irregular rainfall in the north and northeastern regions. In Argentina, planting is progressing slowly due to periodic rainfall events but conditions are generally favourable," they said. Informa today estimated Brazil's 2015/16 soybean crop at 101.4 MMT (versus 101 MMT previously), placing Argentina at 58.5 MMT (down from 59.0 MMT previously). Abundant rains are delaying planting progress in Argentina, say the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecast for this year's US soybean crop at 3.9 billion bushels. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.97 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $9.00 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $287.10, up $0.80; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 30.59, up 32 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 6-7 cents higher. The move came despite weekly export sales of 499,400 MT for 2015/16 being down 76 percent from the previous week and 50 percent beneath the prior 4-week average. That was also at the low end of trade estimates of 500,000 MT to 1.1 MMT. Exports of 373,800 MT were also less than thrilling, being down 30 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The FAO cut their forecast for the world 2015/16 corn crop by 3 MMT from previously to 1001 MMT. Although that's way above the USDA's 975 MMT and the IGC's 967 MMT. Reduced output in China was the main reason. "In Brazil conditions have improved and are mostly favourable owing to rains. Planting of the spring-planted crop (the smaller producing season) is ongoing in most regions. There is some concern in the northeastern region due to dry conditions, and planting will intensify once regular rainfall commences. In Argentina, planting is almost halfway complete and conditions are generally favourable, however, there is some concern due to losses from a hail storm that affected early planted fields in Cordoba and Santa Fe," they said. "In Ukraine, harvesting is almost complete and yields are expected to be down due to the persistent dryness and high temperatures in central and western regions in previous months," they added. They placed world 2015/16 ending stocks 5 MMT higher than a month ago at 226 MMT, now just 1 MMT below last season's record, largely due to increases in the US. Informa estimated the Argentine corn crop at 21 MMT, up sharply from its previous estimate of 18.5 MMT. They trimmed Brazil by 0.2 MMT to 81.3 MMT. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.70 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.77, up 6 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed stronger. Weekly export sales of 392,200 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up 29 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. That kind of shows you how poor things have been of late though really. It was mid-range versus trade expectations of 250,000 to 500,000 MT. Interestingly, China accounted for 98,300 MT of this week's business. There were also net sales of 40,700 MT for 2016/17. Actual exports this week were 399,000 MT were up 54 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (98,300 MT), South Korea (53,600 MT), the Philippines (50,400 MT), Mexico (24,700 MT), the United Kingdom (24,100 MT) and Nigeria (23,700 MT). MDA CropCast were unchanged on their US all wheat production estimate at 2.218 billion bushels. The FAO cut the global wheat crop by 1 MMT from last month to 735 MMT due to reduced output in Brazil and Argentina, They were unchanged on ending stocks at 207 MMT, the highest since 2001/02. "The expansion largely reflects an anticipated build-up of inventories in the EU and the US," they said. "In Australia, conditions have weakened leading into harvest owing to below average rainfall and above average temperatures during spring in many cropping regions. In Argentina, conditions improved owing to showers in the main growing regions, and are favourable in most regions except in Santa Fe and Cordoba where damaging hail storms occurred. The crop is in flowering to ripening stages, and harvesting is ongoing in the north. In Brazil, harvesting is mostly complete and conditions are poor. Excessive rain in November and other adverse climatic conditions throughout the crop cycle caused loss of quality and productivity," they said. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.64 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.58 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22, up 2 1/4 cents.