Chicago Grains Reaction To USDA Report Is Muted
09/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. Save for a 1.5 MMT reduction in production in India this year there were no big changes to output in the major like US, Brazil or Argentina. The US is finding the global soybean export market a bit more competitive this year. "As of the week ending November 26, US 2015/16 soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 18.9 MMT compared with 24.9 MMT a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 32.9 MMT, compared with 39.6 MMT for the same period last year," they noted. Global palm oil production was lowered from 65.1 MMT a month ago to 62.6 MMT, with Malaysia cut by 2 MMT and Indonesia down 0.5 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 800 TMT to 1 MMT for beans. Export sales last week were 878,300 MT. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.76 3/4, unchanged; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.79 3/4, also unchanged; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $278.80, up $2.20; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 30.86, down 37 points.
Corn: The corn market closed narrowly mixed. In the USDA's December WASDE report "global (corn) output was lowered slightly from November with increases for Canada (+1.3 MMT), offset by decreases for South Africa (-0.8 MMT) and India (-1.5 MMT) following recent dry weather," said the HGCA. As far as exports go, those from the US were cut 1.5 MMT to 44.5 MMT, partially offset by an increase of 1 MMT for Brazil (up from 33 MMT to 34 MMT). World 2015/16 ending stocks were almost identical to a month ago, and in line with expectations, at just under 212 MMT. The US Energy Dept said that weekly US ethanol production came in at 993,000 barrels per day, up from 956,000 barrels per day the previous week (where output was lowered due to Thanksgiving), but down from the record 1.008 million barrels per day of the week before that. Trade estimates from tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 550,000 MT versus 499,400 MT a week ago. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.71 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.73 3/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around 4-8 cents higher. In the USDA report: "Global wheat production forecasts climbed again due to increases for Canada (+1.6 MMT) reflecting last week’s data from Statistics Canada, and the EU (+0.4 MMT). Total demand was broadly unchanged as increases in feed wheat imports and consumption in South East Asia (mainly Thailand and Indonesia), were offset by lower animal feed demand in the EU. End-season stock forecasts were increased as a result – principally in the EU and Canada," said the HGCA. The USDA cut Europe's share of the global wheat export market in 2015/16 to 20% from last season, and 1 MMT less than they predicted a month ago on "a slower than expected pace and sluggish export licenses." Ukraine was boosted 500,000 MT to 15.5 MMT "based upon a significantly faster pace of feed-quality wheat shipments, particularly to Southeast Asia. Canada was up 0.5 MMT "on the continued strong pace of trade to date and a larger than anticipated crop." Argentina was increase 1 MMT "on the announced elimination of export taxes and quotas by the (NEW) incoming government." Tomorrow's weekly export sales are estimate at around 400 TMT. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.78, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.67 1/4, up 8 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents.
