Nogger's Blog

17/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans have turned around lower overnight trade to trade higher heading into the close. The USDA said that private exporters reported export sales of 424,000 MTs of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2015/16 marketing year under the daily reporting system. The USDA reported weekly soybean export sales of 887,800 MT for 2015/16, down 39 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Trade estimates were for sales of 900,000 MT to 1.3 MMT. China as usual was the largest home taking 438,600 MT of that total. Exports of 1,554,400 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average, but still pretty good nevertheless. The primary destination was China (910,500 MT). Informa forecast US soybean plantings for 2016 at 84.54 million acres versus a previous 85.3 million and the recent USDA prediction of 82.0 million. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.77, up 14 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.77 3/4, up 14 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $275.90, up $6.00; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.07, down 30 points.

Corn: The corn market was also trading near the highs of the day heading towards the close. Argentina announced it would allow the peso to float starting today. Weekly export sales of 579,400 MT for 2015/16 were down 44 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. Trade estimates were for sales of 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. There were also net sales of 98,200 MT for 2016/17 reported for Japan (97,200 MT) and Nicaragua (1,000 MT). Weekly exports of 495,000 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Informa forecast US 2016 corn plantings at 88.93 million acres versus a previous estimate of 90.1 million and the recent USDA baseline figure of 90.5 million. Strategie Grains estimated the EU-28 2016 corn production at 64.9 MMT, a 13% rise on this year as yields return closer to normal levels after this year's disaster. Talk of China introducing anti-dumping legislation to stem the flow of cheap DDGS imports from the US is mounting. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.74 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.80 1/4, up 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market attempted it's own mid-session turnaround but was mostly lower heading into the close. Weekly export inspections of 320,200 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up 42 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was in line with modest trade forecasts for sales of 250,000 to 400,000 MT. Exports of 332,300 MT were up 55 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Informa estimated that 39.4 million acres of US winter wheat got planted, up from their previous forecast of 38.7 million. French consultant Strategie Grains pegged EU 2016 wheat production at 143.6 MMT in it's first estimate for next year. Production this year was 150.0 MMT, they say. They also increased EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2015/16 by 800,000 MT to 27.6 MMT versus 32.5 MMT in 2014/15. Carryover stocks at the end of 205/16 at a still "very substantial" 18.4 MMT though, they predict. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.91, up 1 cent; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.91, down 1/2 cent; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.17 1/2, up 2 cents.