Main Chicago Grains End Higher On The Day And For The Week
04/12/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day and for the week. Meal was lower on the day but posted a small weekly gain, whilst oil was up more than 300 points versus last Friday on ideas that biodiesel will make up much of the newly increased RFS mandate. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 77% sold on their old crop beans versus 71% a year ago. New crop is 4% sold against 3% committed a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine soybean plantings are 54.4% complete. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil's 2016 soybean production at a record 100.4 MMT, down 0.1 MMT from their previous projection. The USDA are at 100 MMT. Stats Canada estimated 2015 Canadian canola production at 17.2 MMT, far higher than the average trade estimate of 15.6 MMT and the 14.3 MMT forecast in October (and the USDA at 15.5 MMT). A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on soybeans found Bullish: 9 Bearish: 6 Neutral: 6. The USDA reported export sales of 178,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 249,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, both for shipment during the 2015/16 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $9.06, up 8 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $9.08, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal settled at $285.10, down $2.00; Dec 15 Soybean Oil settled at 31.80, up 121 points. For the week Jan 16 beans were 33 cents higher, Dec 15 meal was up $2.70 and Dec 15 oil advanced 305 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-6 cents higher on the day and with good gains for the week also. The move came despite crude closing the week below $40/barrel on news that OPEC had agreed to "informally" raise its output ceiling to 31.5 million barrels/day, up 1.5 million from the previously agreed level. That said, production in November was already said to have been 31.77 million barrels/day, so the previous "limit" of 30 million was already pretty informal. Saudi Arabia maintains it's "deep pockets" approach, saying it is working hard to break the fracking industry and re-capture market share. Brussels issued 311 TMT worth of corn import licences this past week, taking the season to date total to 4.7 MMT. Spain said that they'd imported 1.25 MMT of corn in Q1 of 2015/16, a 10% increase on the same period a year ago. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 82% sold on their old crop corn versus 88% a year ago. New crop is 6% sold against 10% committed a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine corn plantings are 43.6% complete. They were unchanged on their estimate for plantings of corn for grain at 2.72 million ha this year. There's still plenty of trade talk of there being just enough time for new Argentine president Macri's recent election victory having come just in time for Argentine growers to increase this area to closer to 3.0 million ha this year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found Bullish: 7 Bearish: 4 Neutral: 10. Dec 15 Corn settled at $3.76 1/4, up 6 cents; Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.81 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents. For the week Dec 15 corn was 17 cents higher and Mar 16 rose 14 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around 4-6 cents higher on the day and with gains of varying magnitude for the week - led by a Minneapolis market searching for quality. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated that the 2015/16 wheat harvest there is 31% done, up 20 points versus a week ago. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 109% sold on their old crop wheat versus 80% a year ago. New crop is 8% sold against 31% committed a year ago. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on wheat found Bullish: 6 Bearish: 11 Neutral: 4. CBH Group estimated the Western Australia grains crop at 12.5 MMT versus 13.0 MMT previously. Wheat accounts for around 60% of that, ie. 7.5 MMT versus 7.8 MMT previously. That's down 14%, or 1.2 MMT, versus the current government forecast. Stats Canada put the Canadian all wheat crop at 27.6 MMT versus their October estimate of 26.06 MMT and the average trade estimate of 26.7 MMT. The USDA are at 26.0 MMT. Brussels issued a marketing year high soft wheat export licence total of 1.04 MMT this week, an 88% increase on a week ago. That takes the cumulative season to date total to 9.76 MMT. Whist that's down 23% versus this time year ago things were 30% behind a year ago just two weeks back. The French Ministry today released their first estimates on plantings for the 2016 harvest. They see the French winter wheat area up 1.5% to 5.22 million ha - the largest area sown for 80 years. French winter wheat is currently seen at 98% good to very good and winter barley is 97% good to very good, both versus 93% a year ago. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.71 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.63 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.28 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was up 5 1/2 cents, with Kansas rising 13 1/2 cents and Minneapolis up 18 1/4 cents.
