Chicago Grains Attempt Modest Turnaround Tuesday
05/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains in a modest "Turnaround Tuesday" affair. Brazil's soybean planting "window" is turning into a set of full width "patio doors". Whilst harvesting of a few early (planted Sep15-21) irrigated beans are being reported in isolated parts of Mato Grosso, other states are asking the government to extend the final plant date from Jan 15th to the end of the month. Note, that they don't want to not plant at all, they want to get these beans in. With the real where it is the price on offer to a Brazilian grower is the same as it was back in the good old days of mid-2013. Argentina said that they might produce 60 MMT of beans this year versus the current USDA estimate of 57 MMT. Current wetness in some areas is reminiscent of last year when bumper yields were ultimately achieved. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.67 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.57 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $265.30, up $2.10; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.63, down 30 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so higher in light consolidation following yesterday's rout. Israel are shopping for corn and Ukraine offers are said to be around $12/tonne lower than the best US quotation. Trade gossip suggests that China have already bought more corn than expected for their 2015/16 stockpiling scheme. The USDA currently has Chinese corn consumption down at 214 MMT this season, and sees carryout at 114 MMT (53% of usage). Brazil’s ANEC group estimated the country's December corn exports at 5.85 MMT. That would take total corn exports this season so far to 30.75 MMT, up nearly 47% from the previous year’s 20.96 MMT. Weakness of the Brazilian real also makes safrinha corn planting in Brazil a still attractive prospect. Zimbabwe said that they intend to import 700,000 MT of corn this year, as drought cuts its domestic crop. India are said to be tendering for 320,000 MT of non-GMO corn. Japan are said to be tendering for 131,000 MT of optional origin corn. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.53, up 1 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.58 1/2, up 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch firmer, but well off the intra-day highs. Reuters reported that 3 cargoes of French wheat destined for Egypt's GASC that should have been shipped late December, are sat off the port of Dunkirk waiting to load due to delays in the arrival of the necessary letters of credit. It will be interesting to see how well subscribed their next tender is, and indeed if a few shippers start to build in a little "insurance premium" into the price. They shouldn't be too active now though, their own harvest is only a few months away. It seems that most winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere is in good condition, with the exception of Ukraine. The USDA yesterday said that US winter wheat ratings are significantly improved compared with late November and a year ago. "Since mid November the bread wheat states on the US mid Plains have received 4.5 inches of rainfall against 1.5 inches," say Martell Crop Projections. Europe generally is looking pretty good, although a very hard cold snap could raise so concerns as and when one arrives. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.66 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.69 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.96, up 1 3/4 cents.
