Nogger's Blog

29/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day, but little changed for the week. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on beans found: Bullish 2; Bearish 17; Neutral 10; Soybean traders are the most most bearish since August, they said. The harvest there is slowly underway, but should still be record large apart from one or two areas of concern. AgRural estimated Brazil soybean harvest at 4 percent complete compared to the previous year period at 6 percent. US soybean sales meanwhile are starting to tail off. Today's delayed weekly export sales report had these at 647,800 MT for 2015/16, down 34 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. China was the largest buyer (296,800 MT). Exports of 1,323,200 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination was China (764,200 MT). Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.82 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.84 1/2, up 14 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $272.40, up $5.50; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.88, up 19 points. For the week, Mar 16 beans rose 1 3/4 cents, with Mar 16 meal down 10 cents and Mar 16 oil up 44 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with decent gains on the day, and a couple of cents firmer for the week. Weekly export sales of 817,000 MT for 2015/16 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Mexico (304,900 MT) and Japan (245,800 MT) were the largest homes. Net sales of 38,400 MT for 2016/17 were also reported for Mexico (37,600 MT) and Nicaragua (800 MT). Exports of 648,700 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (193,100 MT), Mexico (99,400 MT), Peru (88,800 MT), Colombia (78,300 MT), Saudi Arabia (77,000 MT), South Korea (64,700 MT) and Honduras (23,200 MT). A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found: Bullish 6; Bearish 12; Neutral 11. Taiwan has tendered for 65,000 MT of optional origin corn. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.72, up 6 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.76 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents. For the week, Mar 16 was up 1 3/4 cents and May 16 was 2 cents higher.

Wheat: The market closed decent gains on the day, and small ones for the week. Weekly export sales of 294,200 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. That tells you just how bad some recent weeks have been. Increases were reported for Japan (153,600 MT), Indonesia (60,100 MT), South Korea (53,300 MT), Mexico (49,600 MT), Nigeria (47,800 MT), Vietnam (13,700 MT) and Costa Rica (12,600 MT). Net sales of 52,800 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for the United Arab Emirates (25,000 MT), Japan (25,000 MT) and Italy (2,800 MT). Exports of 311,400 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (90,400 MT), Colombia (50,000 MT), Mexico (41,200 MT), Ecuador (29,400 MT), the Philippines (28,500 MT) and Nigeria (23,800 MT). Some media reports say that Russian announced there would be no wheat export duty changes, others said no decision would be made until next week. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.85, up 7 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.82 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.05 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents. For the week, May 16 Chicago wheat was up 4 3/4 cents, with Kansas wheat up 1 1/2 cents and Minneapolis adding 2 1/2 cents.