Nogger's Blog

07/01/16 -- General: Chinese stocks closed 7% lower for the second time this week - always unsettling. Brent and WTI crude oil have both taken out their 2008 lows and now trading at levels not seen in more than 10 years.

Soycomplex: Weekly US export sales on beans of 638,700 MT for 2015/16 were up 33 percent from the previous week, but down 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Trade estimates were for sales of 400,000 to 700,000 MT. The top homes were China (929,400 MT) the Netherlands (236,300 MT). Actual exports of 1,817,100 MT were good being up 33 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations again were China (1,181,600 MT) and the Netherlands (236,300 MT). The USDA also reported 246,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to China this morning for 2015/16 delivery under the daily reporting system. Meal sales of only 46,462 MT were the smallest of the marketing year so far, "In Brazil, the weather has been irregular in major producing regions. During the planting season, drought was long in the states of the Center-West (especially in Mato Grosso), and in the Northeast," said FCSTone. "In Argentina, the weather pattern has been favorable so far, with only a few problems related to excessive rains," they added. Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.77, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.64 1/2, down 1/4 cent; Jan 16 Soybean Meal is at $266.20, down $0.70; Jan 16 Soybean Oil is at $29.44, down 15 points

Corn: Net sales of 252,900 MT for 2015/16 were down 64 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was below trade ideas of 400,000 to 600,000 MT. Mexico (117,800 MT) and Colombia (91,600 MT) were the top buyers. Commitments to date are now 20.452 MMT, which is 25% behind last year’s pace and 19% behind the pace needed to meet the current annual estimate from the the USDA. Exports of 357,800 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (117,400 MT), Colombia (94,200 MT) and Peru (87,600 MT). Slumping global crude oil values provided little support for corn. "In Brazil, attentions are directed to cultivation of the 2016 safrinha. Despite the delays in the soybean crop, which end up affecting the ideal window of winter corn cultivation, producers will likely plant outside the best period. The domestic prices of the grain remain high and a good amount of the crop is already committed to anticipated sales, an incentive to production," said FCStone. Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.513, down 1/4 cent; May 16 Corn closed at $3.58 1/4, unchanged.

Wheat: Weekly export sales of only 76,500 MT were a bit of a disaster and a marketing-year low. Trade expectations were for sales of 200,000 to 400,000 MT. Interestingly though China (55,000 MT) did pop up as a buyer on a cargo. Exports of 274,500 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (101,400 MT), the Philippines (55,000 MT), Nigeria (44,000 MT), South Korea (27,700 MT) and Ecuador (20,000 MT). "The international wheat market is currently bearish and is likely to remain so in 2016. With an unbalanced world supply and demand, the USDA projections are very high for production in the 2015/16 crop," said FCStone. "The appreciated dollar against the world currencies does also not help the US commodities market, with great concerns about the country's competitiveness and exports," they added. Informa cut their projection for Indian wheat production by 4 MMT to 81 MMT. May 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.73 1/4, up 5 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.72 1/2, up 2 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.01 1/2, up 4 cents.