Nogger's Blog

14/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mixed, but mostly a touch higher. Weekly export sales came in at 1,127,400 MT for 2015/16, up 77 percent from the previous week and 13 percent above the prior 4-week average. That included 775,300 MT for China. Exports of 1,348,000 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (661,800 MT), the Netherlands (227,100 MT), Japan (96,300 MT), Spain (56,800 MT), France (55,400 MT) and South Korea (51,800 MT). The Argentine Ag Ministry reported growers there to be 81% sold on old crop beans (versus 76% a year ago at this time) and 5% done on new crop (4.6%). Planting of new crop is close to finished, say the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Safras says Brazilian farmers have forward sold 49% of their new crop soybeans, 10 points more than at the same time last year. The December NOPA crush numbers come out tomorrow with 157.5 million bushels being what the trade expects versus 165.4 million in November and 156.1 million a year previously. Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.96, down 3 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.82 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal closed at $267.70, down $3.20; Jan 16 Soybean Oil closed at $29.75, up 21 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around flat to a cent lower. Fresh news was thin. Weekly export sales came in at 669,200 MT for 2015/16, up noticeably from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average, and a little above trade ideas of 400-650 TMT. Japan (310,200 MT), Mexico (145,500 MT) and Colombia (119,000 MT) were featured buyers. Exports of 638,200 MT were up 78 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (214,400 MT), Japan (151,600 MT), Colombia (143,500 MT), Peru (56,700 MT), Cuba (25,000 MT) and Guatemala (22,000 MT). Under the daily reporting system the USDA also reported the sale of 102,100 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2015/16 marketing year. Taiwan said that they'd cancelled a tender for 130 TMT of optional origin corn for Apr/May shipment due to high prices. The Argentine Ag Ministry reported farmers there to be 89% sold on old crop corn (versus 96.6% a year ago) and 11% done on new crop (19% a year ago). The Rosario Exchange were said to have raised their forecast for the 2015/16 Argentine corn crop to 23.8 MMT, up from their last estimate of 20.2 MMT, due to a late planting rush. Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.58, unchanged; May 16 Corn closed at $3.62 3/4, down 1/4 of a cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with some fairly steep losses for a second session. Weekly export sales of 274,700 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up noticeably from the previous week's paltry effort, but still down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 552,200 MT were also up noticeably from the previous week and 74 percent above the prior 4-week average. Once again though the bar for these has been set very low indeed recently. South Korea's Deahan were reported to have booked 80,600 MMT of Australian wheat for June shipment. Taiwan booked 88,750 TMT of US wheat for Feb/Mar and Japan took 140,700 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in it's regular weekly tender. All routine stuff there pretty much. Russia said it had exported 35.57 MMT of grains in 2015, of which 21.72 MMT was wheat. The Argentine Ag Ministry says that growers there are 19% sold on wheat versus 44.6% a year ago. Their 2015/16 harvest there is now winding to a close. The Rosario Grain Exchange left its wheat production estimate for the country unchanged at 9.6 MMT. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.68 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.68 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.92 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents.