Nogger's Blog

19/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of 1.395 MT were fairly good. Analysts seem to be paring the top off the size of the Brazilian crop, even if it is still likely to be record large. Agroconsult reduced its 2015/16 Brazilian bean production estimate to 99.2 MMT from 100.6 MMT previously. Rains in Mato Grosso over the weekend were reported to have bee "far lighter" than expected. Having had a persistently wet growing season so far, the weather in the south of the country may also be turning the other way. "The soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul are now flowering and starting to fill pods just as the weather has turned dryer. There is no rain in the forecast until sometime next week and in the meantime, temperatures are expected to be in the mid-90F range," said Dr Cordonnier. Any price rallies will simply encourage more soybean plantings going forward though. Informa now estimate US 2016 soybean plantings at a new record 85.23 million acres versus a previous estimate at 84.54 million and 82.7 million a year ago. Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.83 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal closed at $271.30, up $0.60; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.03, up 38 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher. Weekly export sales of 581,479 MT were average. Season to date inspections are down more than 20% on this time last year. Informa estimated US 2016 corn plantings at 88.869 million acres versus a previous estimate of 88.93 million and 88 million in 2015. Agroconsult pegged its Brazilian corn production estimate at 85.6 MMT, down from its previous forecast of 88.5 MMT. The USDA reported 110,500 MT of US corn sold to unknown destinations for 2015/16 delivery under the daily reporting system. Ukraine are indicating that the country might see a 22% jump in spring barley plantings due to reduced winter grain sowings and possible heightened levels of winter-kill. It's possible that a similar scenario might pan out for Ukraine corn this year too. They seem to now be majoring on corn exports, with APK Inform saying that more than 89% of last week's grain exports via Ukraine seaports were corn. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.67 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.72, up 4 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed little changed. Weekly export inspections of 340,842 MT were in line with market expectations. Season to date inspections are more than 10% lower than a year ago. Informa estimated US wheat plantings for the 2016 harvest at 51.1 million acres, down 6.4% versus 54.6 million from the USDA last year. It's said that the two cargoes of Argentine wheat sailing/expected to sail to the US port of Wilmington are carrying feed wheat and are replacing US corn as a feed ingredient. Argentina has also stepped up it's sales of milling wheat to Brazil in the past week weeks by all accounts. Japan is in the market for it's regular weekly US wheat tender this week, with the results due on Thursday. Substantial snow is said to be on the way for southern Russia and Ukraine, which may slow up shipments of wheat from that direction a little. Europe will be only too glad to pick up any spot orders that are around. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.79, up 1/2 cent; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.82 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.