Chicago Grains Close - Wednesday
06/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed firmer, adding to yesterday's gains. Informa Economics today kept their Brazilian soybean crop estimate unchanged stable at 101.4 MMT. They were also steady on Argentina at 58.3 MMT. There are one or two rumblings that Brazil's crop is getting smaller, nevertheless, despite what Informa might say. Dr Cordonnier said that the arrival of recent rains in central/northern states has come too late to save early planted/maturing soybeans and that yields for those will be down. Conab are due to update us with their thoughts next Tuesday, when the USDA are also out with their WASDE report. The USDA were 100 MMT for Brazil and 57 MMT for Argentina last month. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 400,000 to 700,000 MT. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.75 3/4, up 8 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.64 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $266.90, up $1.60; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.59, down 4 points.
Corn: The corn market closed virtually unchanged. US weekly ethanol production came in at 996,000 barrels per da, up 4,000 bpd from the week before. Informa estimated the 2015/16 Brazilian corn crop at 81.3 MMT, unchanged from previously. They raised Argentina by 1 MMT to 22 MMT. The December USDA estimates were 81.5 MMT and 25.6 MMT respectively. Weakness of the Brazilian real and Argentine peso continue to make corn production a much more attractive proposition there than it currently is in the US. One private exporter in Brazil said that they expect 30.7 MMT of corn to be exported from the country throughout the next year, up 9.3 MMT versus 12 months previously. Crude oil closed at new lows - below $34/barrel. Widespread talk of prices in the $20/barrel range lean bearish for corn. So too does continued US dollar strength. Greenpeace said that that farmers in China are illegally growing genetically modified corn in the northeast of the country. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report range from 400,000 to 600,000 MT. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.53 1/4, up 1/4 cent; May 16 Corn settled at $3.58 1/2, unchanged.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains. The size of the fund short position in wheat is the most positive thing that the market has to cling to. right now. US exports are weak. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are moderate at only 200,000 to 400,000 MT. The strong US dollar remains a thorn in the side. "French wheat hit a four-month low today, as Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, said that it would be enforcing a 'zero tolerance' policy on ergot contamination in wheat shipments," report Agrimoney. A cargo of French wheat was rejected last month, after trace levels of ergot were detected. Three vessels are still said to be waiting for the arrival of letters of credit before they can start loading French wheat in Dunkirk for Egypt. Gasc vice-chairman Mamdouh Abdel Fattah told Reuters that the delay was due to administrative issues, not any lack of liquidity, and the letters of credit will be supplied shortly. That market isn't quite so confident. What happens when the world's largest wheat buyer runs out of money to pay for it's wheat? May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.68 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.70 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.97 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents.
