Chicago Grains End Higher For The Day/Week, Except Corn Which Posts Small Weekly Loss
08/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day and for the week. One or two traders may have been looking to square books a little ahead of Tuesday's WASDE report from the USDA. They gave us Brazilian production of 100 MMT last month. The USDA's ag attache in Brazil now estimates production at 98 MMT. A trade survey has output at 99.29 MMT. For all the talk of China's economy faltering, and the possible impact for soybean demand, there's no sign of a downswing yet. CNGOIC in China bumped up its Chinese soybean import estimate up to 80 MMT this year, up 2 MMT from its previous forecast and now 1.5 MMT above the USDA's December number. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are on average estimated to be 2.742 billion bushels. Brazil is finally turning wetter in the north and centre, although some yield potential will already have been lost. "Brazil’s tropical soybeans have received heavier rainfall recently, slightly easing drought in Mato Grosso’s Centre West and scattered areas of the Northeast tropics. Soybean prospects have brightened somewhat with recent strong showers. The forecast is hopeful for more rain," said Martell Crop Porojections. Nationally the crop is said to be 1% harvested. Argentina is said to be 93% planted. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.79 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.65 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $267.90, up $1.70; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.45, up 1 point. For the week, nearby beans up 8 1/4 cents, with meal $3.60 higher and oil down 110 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher on the day, but the best part of 2 cents easier for the week. Crude was relatively stable, albeit lower, and whilst the US dollar gave up nearly all of its early gains it still closed at its higher since the summer of 2010 against the British pound. It also remains close to the recent highs versus the euro. Argentina corn planting is said to be 82% complete. Acres are still called 16% lower. Global freight levels are low, which along with the weak Argentine peso, should help them make some inroads into non-traditional homes form corn now that the export tax has ended. The average trade average guess in a Bloomberg survey for the December 1 Grain Stocks report on Tuesday appears to be 11.25 billion bushels. The USDA had Brazil's corn crop at 81.5 MMT last month, and pegged Argentina at 25.6 MMT. Drought could lead South Africa to need to import as much as a record 2.5 MMT of South American white corn, with sowings for the South African crop only halfway done as of the end of the ideal planting window of Dec 31. Total white and yellow corn imports could hit 5 MMT it is thought. A Bloomberg survey of 23 traders/analysts in corn price sentiment found only 4 that were bullish corn, 14 who are bearish, and 5 who are neutral. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.57, up 4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.62 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents. For the week that places Mar 16 corn 1 3/4 cents lower, with May 16 down a similar amount.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on the day and for the week, supported I guess by short-covering ahead of next week's USDA data due on Tuesday. Not only does that include the regular WASDE numbers but we will also get the quarterly stocks figures and US winter wheat seedings area. Trade estimates place that at 39.334 million acres, slightly below last year’s 39.461 million. Fund money is short on wheat, and now might be fretting over possible damage/production losses for Indian wheat. Funds were credited with buying 6,000 contracts of CBOT wheat today, although some estimates are higher. We won't know for sure until a week from now. Today's CTFC report shows managed money increasing their net short position as of the Tuesday night close to close on 120k lots, with 96k of that in Chicago. A Bloomberg survey of trade analysts puts the Dec 1 US wheat inventory average estimate at 1.694 billion bushels. Argentina’s wheat crop is said to be 87% harvested. FSU weather is said to be improving with snow cover increasing in some areas of vulnerable winter wheat. Europe has been mild, but colder to much colder than normal weather is finally on the way there. Snow cover is minimal. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on US wheat found 5 bullish, 14 bearish, and 4 neutral out of 23 respondents. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.78 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.70 3/4, up 10 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.98 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat added 7 1/2 cents, with Kansas up 4 cents and Minneapolis gaining 4 1/2 cents.
