Chicago Grains End Mostly Higher, Save For Corn
21/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch higher, recovering around half of yesterday's losses. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in beans found 4 bulls, 16 bears and 7 neutrals. The Argentine government said that growers there were almost 83.5% sold on old crop beans (versus 77% a year ago) and 5.3% done on new crop (versus 4.8% a year ago). The Buenos Aires Exchange estimate 2016 soybean production there at 58 MMT versus 61 MMT last year. MDA CropCast raised their view on Argentina by 1 MMT to 60.6 MMT. The IGC added 1 MMT to the global 2015/16 soybean crop, taking that up to 322 MMT, some 3 MMT above the USDA. They added 2 MMT to consumption though and cut carryover by 3 MMT. They also now have Argentina at 60 MMT, with Brazil trimmed from 99.5 MMT to 99 MMT. They left Chinese imports unchanged at 81 MMT. Exports continue to pour out of Brazil. The port of Paranagua said that they'd exported 7.8 MMT of soybeans in 2015, a 21% increase versus a year previously. They also shipped out 4.8 MMT of soymeal/pellets. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are between 700,000 MT and 1.0 MMT. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.78 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.79, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $272.20, up $2.40; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.94, up 13 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 1-2 cents easier. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in corn found 9 bulls, 12 bears, 6 neutrals. The Argentine government said that growers there were over 92% sold on old crop corn (versus 97% a year ago) and 12.73% done on new crop (versus 19.7% a year ago). They increased their planting estimate from 5.4 million ha to 5.69 million, concurring with the view that the Macri election victory spurred some late seeding. The US Energy Dept had weekly US ethanol production at 983,000 barrels/day, down 20,000 barrels/day from the previous week. The IGC wiped 8 MMT off their global corn production estimate for 2015/16, taking that down to 659 MMT. The USDA are at 968 MMT. The IGC did however cut world corn consumption by 6 MMT to 968 MMT. Carryover stocks were pegged 4 MMT lower than a month ago at 196 MMT. The reduced level of world output came "mainly because of poorer harvests in South Africa and India." For South Africa the IGC went for 7.5 MMT. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the South African corn crop to 7.8 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 600,000 to 900,000 MT. Some media reports suggest that troubled Spanish biofuel producer Abengoa may be looking at selling their entire bioenergy division for $1 billion, including all of their US corn ethanol assets. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.67, down 1 3/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.71 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The market closed around 4-5 cents firmer. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in wheat found only 3 bulls, 14 bears, 10 neutrals. The fewest bulls since September. Nothing especially bullish emerged today, the large fund short position simply continues to provide support to the market with farmers reluctant to sell at these levels. The Argentine government said that growers there were 22.2% sold on their 2015/16 wheat versus 46.5% committed a year ago. The Buenos Aires Exchange raised their forecast for the Argentine wheat crop from 10.1 MMT to 10.3 MMT, an annual decline of only 3.8%. If weather conditions permit, the harvest could be concluded in the coming days, after the few remaining paintings collected over southern agricultural region are cleared, they said. That's a far better result than was being talked about a few months ago. The IGC raised world wheat production by 5 MMT from their previous forecast to 731 MMT, and added a similar amount to carryover stocks, taking them up to 213 MMT. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the global wheat crop in 2016/17 citing reduced acres in the US and dryness in India. The latter was cut 1.52 MMT from a week ago to 87.1 MMT. Egypt bought 235,000 MT of Russian, Romanian and French wheat in a tender. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sale report for wheat are only in the region of 200 to 400,000 MT. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.79 3/4, up 4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.81 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.05 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.
