Nogger's Blog

22/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower on the day and for the week. Weekly export sales totals are grinding seasonally lower, as you would expect, but are still decent enough. This week's bean sales of 985,100 MT for 2015/16 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. No surprises for guessing that China (717,900 MT) was the largest home. Exports of 1,575,100 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,024,500 MT), Germany (76,000 MT), the United Kingdom (64,100 MT), South Korea (57,600 MT), Mexico (54,600 MT) and Japan (47,300 MT). Total commitments to all destinations is still behind last year by 9%. The weekly commitment of traders report has managed money reducing their net short position in beans to 25,773 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. The market continues to ponder over US plantings for 2016. Informa had these at a new record 85.23 million acres versus a previous estimate at 84.54 million and 82.7 million a year ago earlier in the week. Yet Farm Futures Magazine indicate plantings down 500,000 acres at 82.2 million - quite a difference. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.76 1/2, down 2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.77 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $268.50, down $3.70; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.50, up 56 points. For the week, Mar beans were down 2 1/2 cents, with Mar meal losing $2.20 and Mar oil adding 85 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents higher on the day. Weekly export sales were strong at 1,157,700 MT for 2015/16, being up 73 percent from the previous week and 91 percent from the prior 4-week average. Pre-report estimates had been for sales of 600,000 to 900,000 MT. Actual exports were average at 571,600 MT - down 10 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were also sales of sales of 189,000 MT for 2016/17 reported for Mexico (180,000 MT) and Japan (9,000 MT). Despite this week's strong sales, total commitments for the season to date are 26% down on where they were this time last year. Farm Futures Magazine is indicating that US corn plantings this year might come in at around 88 million acres - the same as last year. Informa were at 88.869 million acres versus a previous estimate of 88.93 million earlier in the week. The USDA's Outlook Forum at the end of February gives us some early rough indications to go on, before the prospective plantings report comes out at the end of March. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money its net short position in corn by 28,621 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. EU data shows that they authorised 941 TMT worth of corn import licences this week, taking the season to date total to 8.11 MMT - some 61% up compared with a year ago. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.70 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.74 3/4, up 3 cents. For the week Mar 16 was 7 cents and May 16 added 7 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed on the day and with small gains for the week. Weekly export sales of 362,000 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16 were up 32 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. They were also in line with modest trade expectations. US wheat sales continue to be spread among "the usual suspects": Mexico (100,100 MT), Japan (52,600 MT), the Philippines (50,100 MT), Guatemala (47,400 MT), Taiwan (40,400 MT), South Korea (34,900 MT) and Honduras (23,200 MT). Exports of 257,700 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average and failed to impress. Managed money holds a slightly smaller net short in Chicago wheat that it did a week ago (-70,458 contracts). "A trough of low pressure has become entrenched in European Russia leading to an unstable environment with recurring rain and snow showers. Precipitation has been exceptionally heavy the past 2 weeks. Russia’s winter grain belt has received 1.5-2.5 inches of precipitation, a mixture of rain and heavy wet snow. That’s way more than a month’s worth of precipitation, some 2-3 times the normal amount. Ukraine has been even wetter receiving 4-6 times normal precipitation. Conditions have become too much of a good thing posing a flooding threat," say Martell Crop Projections. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.80 1/4, up 1/2 cent; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.80 3/4, down 1 cent; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03, down 2 1/2 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat was up 6 1/2 cents, with Kansas adding 6 3/4 cents and Minneapolis gaining 5 3/4 cents.