Nogger's Blog

11/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.244 MMT, down by a third on the same week a year go. Season to date inspections are 11% smaller than this time last year. The USDA also reported 248,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to unknown destinations, and 120,000 MT to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. The trade waits in eager anticipation for tomorrow's USDA reports, which have a bit of history for providing surprises for the bean market. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are on average estimated to be 2.742 billion bushels. USDA world ending stocks are estimated at 82.57 MMT. Brazilian and Argentinean production is estimated at 99.3 MMT and 57.3 MMT respectively. CONAB are also due out with their Brazilian estimates tomorrow. Jan 16 Soybeans settled at $8.81, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.61 1/4, down 4 cents; Jan 16 Soybean Meal settled at $268.80, up $0.90; Jan 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.08, down 37 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents easier. Weekly export inspections of 550,258 MT were in line with trade estimates. YTD inspections are still more than 20% behind where they were this time last year though. The USDA also reported 152,400 MT of US corn was sold to unknown destinations this morning for 2015/16 delivery under the daily reporting system. For tomorrow's USDA report the trade is looking for world ending stocks of 212.51 MMT. The average estimated for the December 1 Grain Stocks report appears to be 11.25 billion bushels. The USDA had Brazil's corn crop at 81.5 MMT last month, and pegged Argentina at 25.6 MMT. There's talk of significant, possibly El Nino-related, crop damage in India. Their state-owned PEC have released a tender to purchase 290 TMT of optional origin corn for Jan/Feb shipment - suggesting that all might not be well with their crop, harvesting of which is taking place now. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.51 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.57 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with sharp losses. Weekly export inspections of 393,688 MT were fair, but YTD inspections are still down 11% on a year ago. For wheat the USDA also gives us some US winter wheat planting estimates tomorrow. For all wheat these are seen at 39.334 million acres. That includes a HRW acreage at 28.802 million acres, SRW at 7.166 million, and White Wheat at 3.367 million. The Argentine wheat crop is 87% harvested and the BAGE raised their estimate for production this year from 9.5 MMT to 10.1 MMT, although still below the USDA's December forecast of 10.5 MMT and 19.2% down on the 12.5 MMT harvested a year ago. Tomorrow's USDA forecast for the Indian wheat crop will be of interest. Ditto if they make any changes to their import requirements. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.74 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.72 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents.