Nogger's Blog

28/01/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower after China cancelled a purchase for 395,000 MT of US beans for 2015/16 delivery this morning. Some are suggesting that this may have been part of the huge "showcase" deal done in late 2015 being switched to Brazil. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their global soybean production forecasts, with Brazil at 98.7 MMT and Argentina at 60.6 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine soybean planting is finished, and see production at 58 MMT, down 4.6% on a year ago. US weekly export sales are delayed until tomorrow, with these expected to come in at around 500,000 to 800,000 MT on beans as sales continue to grind seasonally lower. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.67 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.70 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $266.90, down $5.60; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.69, down 18 points.

Corn: Corn closed around 3-4 cents lower, dragged down by declining soybeans. There's talk of Chinese importers having already booked 20 cargoes of corn for Q1 2016 shipment, but that almost all of that is thought to be of Ukraine origin, only 1-2 cargoes are likely to be US. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange say that corn planting there is 95% complete, on an anticipated total area of 3.1 million ha. MDA CropCast cut their global corn production estimate by 1 MMT thanks to dryness in South Africa where they now see the crop at only 6.8 MMT, down 35% versus 10.5 MMT a year ago. Tomorrow's one day delayed weekly export sales report for corn is expected to come in at around 800,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. In the EU, corn imports approved this week were 209 TMT, back into "normal" territory compared with the 941 TMT worth passed a week ago. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.70 1/2, down 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. There's been no clarification out of Russia, but the market is starting to think that there will be no hinted at "tightness in restrictive measures" on wheat exports to come, but rather a relaxation of them. South Korea booked 20,000 MT of Argentine wheat and Taiwan purchased 41,300 MT of US wheat this morning, while Japan cancelled their regular weekly tender for US, Canadian, Australian wheat. MDA CropCast cut their Canadian wheat production estimate by 0.27 MMT to 25.0 MMT in 2016/17 due to reduced plantings. Russia forecast their 2016/17 grain crop at 104 MMT. Tomorrow's weekly US export sales report is estimate at around 250,000 and 400,000 MT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that their 2015/16 wheat harvest is over at 10.3 MMT. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.78, down 4 1/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.75 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00 1/4, down 1 cent.