Nogger's Blog

04/02/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small losses. Weekly export sales came in at net reductions of 43,600 MT for 2015/16 - a marketing-year low - and were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (374,900 MT), China (55,200 MT) and Tunisia (2,700 MT). There were also new crop sales of 65,700 MT and exports of 1,141,500 MT which included China (811,100 MT), Spain (102,400 MT), the Netherlands (73,300 MT), Japan (39,900 MT), and Mexico (28,700 MT). Brazil’s Conab lowered its forecast for the country’s soy harvest to 100.9 MMT from a previous 102.1 MMT, but still a record. Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.74 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybeans are at $8.77 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal is at $267.60, down $2.50; Mar 16 Soybean Oil is at $31.24, up 26 points.

Corn: The corn market ended a couple of cents lower despite weekly export sales of 1,129,100 MT for 2015/16 being up 38 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. That also beat trade expectations of 750,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Mexico (301,400 MT), Colombia (248,300 MT), Japan (209,300 MT), South Korea (66,100 MTT), Egypt (64,700 MT) and and Peru (63,500 MT) were the main homes. There were also sales of 14,400 MT for 2016/17. Exports of 660,700 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (195,600 MT), Colombia (155,700 MT), South Korea (67,300 MT), Japan (64,700 MT), Egypt (64,700 MT), Peru (38,500 MT), and Guatemala (26,700 MT). Conab estimated Brazil's all corn crop at 83.3 MMT, up from its 82.3 MMT estimate in January and versus the USDA's January forecast of 81.5 MMT. Private Israeli buyers were reported to have purchased 80,000 MT of optional origin, probably Black Sea, corn in a tender. Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.68 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export sales of only 66,200 MT were a new marketing-year low, and down 78 percent from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average. To put that into perspective the largest buyer was Yemen (32,000 MT). Net sales of 87,800 MT for 2016/17 were a bit better. Exports of 230,300 MT were less than stellar once more, being down 26 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (53,400 MT), the Philippines (36,600 MT), Japan (33,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (27,600 MT), Mexico (24,500 MT), and Honduras (19,600 MT). Again all of this re-iterates how difficult the US is finding export homes for wheat, and the sort of orders/destinations that they are having to pick through. StatsCanada reported Canadian all-wheat stocks as of Dec 31 at 20.7 MMT, down 12 percent from a year ago and below the trade estimate of 21.8 MMT. South Korea's MFG were reported o have booked 65,000 MT of Argentine feed wheat at @$180/tonne C&F for March shipment. Mar 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.72 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Mar 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.59 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Mar 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96, down 6 cents.