Chicago Grains Comments - US Growers Finally Falling Out Of Love With Wheat
25/02/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower as weekly export sales disappointed. These came in at only 328,300 MT for 2015/16, down 34 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Trade ideas were for sales of 300-700 TMT. Exports of 1,495,500 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The USDA's February Outlook Forum suggested that US growers might plant 82.5 million acres to soybeans this spring, only slightly lower than the 82.7 million acres that were planted in 2015. Ideas are that the worst is over for Brazil, and production estimates there are now on the increase. AgroConsult increased their forecast to 101.6 MMT from 99.2 MMT previously. MDA CropCast increased their estimate for Brazil by 0.72 MMT to 99.43 MMT, a 3.7% increase on last season and of course a new record. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.59, down 8 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.65 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $260.00, down $2.90; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.65, down 27 points.
Corn: The corn market closed in the region of 4 cents lower. Weekly export sales were in line with trade estimates at 934,400 MT for 2015/16, which were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 870,700 MT were a marketing-year high, being up 19 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. The USDA's Outlook Forum pegged US 2016 corn plantings at 90 million acres, a bit higher than trade ideas of 89.7 million and 2 million up on a year ago. MDA CropCast left world and US corn production in 2015/16 unchanged fro a week ago. The IGC added 10 MMT to their world corn production forecast from a month ago, taking that now up to 969 MMT. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.55 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.60 1/2, down 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch higher, rebounding from yesterday's 5 1/2 year lows. Weekly export sales of 387,900 MT for delivery in the marketing year 2015/16 were up 53 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were also new crop sales of 98,300 MT. Exports of 230,000 MT themselves though were a disappointment, being down 32 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Egypt's GASC tendered for wheat, buying one cargo each of French, Argentine and Ukraine origin as well as two from Romania. The average price paid was around $185.50/tone C&F, some $20/tonne or so below US material. There are signs that US growers are finally falling out of love with wheat, with the USDA Outlook Forum pegging total acres for 2016 at 51 million, the lowest since 1970 and 3.6 million down on last year. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.54, up 2 3/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.57, up 3 1/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.91 3/4, up 3/4 cent.
