Chicago Grains End Higher On Short-Covering/Consolidation
04/03/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day and for the week. Rain delays to the Brazilian harvest, and a sudden revival in value to the real are boosting US beans, prompting some short-covering. Argentina is recieving near record amounts of rain in some areas too, said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. They left their production forecast at 58 MMT however. A weaker US dollar and strong crude oil prices were also supportive factors for the entire grains complex today. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.70 1/2, up 14 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.78 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $267.70, up $5.70; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.73, up 32 points. For the week that puts front month beans 7 cents higher, with meal up $10.50 and oil down 30 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a cent or two higher on the day but flat to a cent or two lower for the week. Fresh news was light. There was perhaps a bit of light consolidation heading into the weekend. "Domestic corn prices in Brazil continue to be supported by very strong corn exports," said Dr Cordonnier. "The strong domestic prices are the result of a tight supply resulting from record large corn exports and declining full-season corn production," he said. However, now these exports will now start to drop off in favour of beans, he added. High prices though mean that the country's safrinha corn area may increase by as much as 10% compared to last year, he notes. The Argentine corn harvest is 2% complete. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate production at 25 MMT this year. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.54 1/2, up 3/4 cent; May 16 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, up 1 3/4 cent. For the week Mar 16 was unchanged and May 16 was down 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on the day and for the week. Short-covering has been the theme. "Dryness that has started to persist across patches of the US Plains has caught the attention of wheat markets this week," noted the HGCA. That's where the big fund short is, so that's what the market is paying attention to. French wheat prices were lower on the day and for the week though, so as US wheat was already struggling to compete internationally, then it won't do much good for US wheat prices to rise a lot further out of sync. Russia expects to export a record wheat volume in 2015/16. Prospects look pretty good for 2016/17 too, with SovEcon calling for a grain crop of 100-105 MMT, of which wheat will consist 59-62 MMT - both broadly similar to last year. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.60 3/4, up 1 cent; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.68 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.97 3/4, down 1/4 cent. For the week, Chicago wheat was up 8 1/4 cents, Kansas added 14 1/2 cents and Minneapolis gained 7 3/4 cents.
