Chicago Grains Mixed Friday, But All Showing Net Weekly Gains
11/03/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher for an eighth session in a row, although the gains have only been relatively moderate. The Philippines bought 90,000 MT of meal in a tender, thought most likely to be of US origin. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in beans found: 8 Bullish: 12 Bearish: 3 Neutral. The latest commitment of traders report shows fund money cutting their net short position on beans for the week through to Tuesday night by around 38.5k lots to leave them net short nearly 43k contracts. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.88, up 6 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.95 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $272.00, up $1.80; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.93, up 52 point.s. For the week, that puts nearby beans 17 1/2 cents firmer, with meal up $4.30 and oil 102 points higher.
Corn: The corn market closed 2-3 cents higher on the day and with fair gains for the week also. Japan bought 170,800 MT of US corn today, announced by the USDA under the daily reporting system. Coceral said that EU-28 corn production will rise 8% to 63.2 MMT this year. Production in both France and Hungary will rebound by more than 1 MMT each, and in Germany by the best part of 1 MMT. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in beans found: 9 Bullish: 8 Bearish: 7 Neutral. Fund money remains sitting on a record/near record short position in Chicago corn, potentially limiting downside. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.66, up 3 1/2 cents; May 16 Corn settled at $3.65, up 2 1/4 cents. For the week, Mar 16 corn was 11 1/2 cents higher and May 16 gained 6 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day but higher for the week. Dry conditions on the southern Plains and wetness in the Delta offer modest support, especially with fund money short. The commitment of traders report shows them knocking off around 15k lots of that CBOT short for the week through to Tuesday night. Their overall net short is still around 92k contracts though. Cocereal gave us their first 2016 EU crop production estimates, pegging the soft wheat crop there at 145.2 MMT, a 3.5% decline on a year ago. France, Germany, the UK and Poland will all see production declines. Only Spain will see increases in soft wheat output among the major producing nations. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in beans found bulls, bears and neutrals evenly split on wheat with 8 of each. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.75 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.83, down 1/4 cent; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.15 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat was 15 cents higher, with Kansas up 14 1/4 cents and Minneapolis gained 17 1/2 cents.
