Chicago Grains End Mixed
06/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a tad higher. Informa pegged its 2015/16 Brazilian soybean production estimate at 100.5 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 101.3 MMT, but up from the USDA's 100.0 MMT forecast. Celeres today went for 99.9 MMT versus its March estimate of 99.1 MMT. Informa estimated Argentina at 59.5 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 59.0 MMT (USDA - 58.5 MMT). With demand switching to South America, trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 200,000 to 550,000 MT. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.08, up 3 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.16, up 3 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $267.90, down $0.80; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.26, up 27 points.
Corn: The market closed a tad firmer. Informa estimated 2015/16 Argentine production at 27.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 27.0 MMT (the same as the USDA) and Brazilian production at 83.7 MMT (previous estimate: 82.5 MMT and USDA: 84.0 MMT). Celeres upped its Brazilian estimate from 87.1 MMT to 87.5 MMT. So it looks like there's some pretty big corn crops on the way from South America again this year as well as soybeans. Nevertheless, Dr Cordonnier still reports on short-term tightness in corn availability in Brazil before they start harvesting safrinha corn in June. "Corn prices in the state of Sao Paulo reached as high as R$ 50 per sack of 60 kilograms recently, or approximately US$ 6.40 a bushel as reported by the Center for Advanced Economic Studies (Cepea)," he says. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales on corn are 750 TMT to 1.2 MMT. May 16 Corn settled at $3.58, up 1 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.60 3/4, up 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market finished the day with some fairly steep losses. Japan are in the market for 137,486 MT of Australian, Canadian, and US wheat in their routine weekly tender. Egypt's GASC are back looking for an unspecified amount of wheat for May 10-20 delivery with the results due tomorrow afternoon. US wheat is likely to be around $30/tonne about the best French/Russian offers. There's still talk of Russian and Ukraine dryness being a potential issue for wheat further down the line. The USDA last night reported US winter wheat conditions better than trade expectations and a year ago as if Sunday night. US exports are sluggish and their 2015/16 season which runs Jun/May is nearing an end. Exports to date suggest the US failing to meet the USDA's 2015/16 full season export target of 21.5 MMT. Export sales tomorrow are forecast 250-500 TMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.69 3/4, down 11 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.72 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.25 1/4, down 8 cents.
