Chicago Grains - Significant Downside Ahead Says One Analyst

08/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day but little altered for the week. CONAB lowered its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 98.98 MMT from their previous estimate of 101.2 MMT. AgResource’s Dan Basse was quoted as saying that Dec beans could hit $7.60 by the end of the year. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.16 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.25, up 12 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $273.70, up $6.90; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.94, down 16 points. For the week that outs May 16 beans 1 1/2 cents lower, with meal $1.40 higher and oil 51 points lower.

Corn: The corn market closed a touch firmer on the day. The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2015-16 delivery under the daily reporting system. The Argentine corn harvest is estimates 18% done. AgResource’s Dan Basse talking at an EU cereals meeting said that corn could fall below $3/bu in Q4 of this year. French new crop corn planting was 1% done as of Monday night. Early plantings in Russia and Ukraine are also underway. UkrAgroConsult report that Sep/Feb Russian corn exports were up 75% from the same period last year. Output here could be at all-time highs again in 2016/17, so why not exports? May 16 Corn settled at $3.62 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.65, up 1 cent. For the week the two saw net declines of 8 /1/4 and 7 1/4 cents respectively.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on the day, but only consolidating overall weekly losses. Kansas wheat fared the worst of the three exchanges on the week as the USDA renewed it's weekly crop condition reports Monday night, and this came in better for wheat on the Plains than the market had been expecting. AgResource’s Dan Basse mooted ideas of Chicago wheat down to $4/bu come July. US wheat continues to struggle to find export homes. French wheat won the one Egypt order this week but their exports still lag too. Meanwhile French wheat crop conditions are the best for 5 years heading towards what could be another record harvest. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.66 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.70 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.29 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat fell 16 1/4 cents, with Kansas down 17 3/4 cents and Minneapolis shedding 8 1/2 cents.