Chicago Reaction To USDA Report

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 12:23 | Categorized as

12/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. The USDA increased US 2015/16 soybean exports by 15 million bu, thereby reducing ending stocks by a similar amount to 445 million bu. That's around 9 million below the average trade guess. World ending stocks came in at 79 MMT in line with trade ideas. Chinese import demand was increased 1 MMT to a new record 83 MMT. Brazil's crop was unchanged at 100 MMT, Argentina's was raised 0.5 MMT to 59.0 MMT. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.36 1/4, up 8 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.44 3/4, up 8 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $285.10, up $5.00; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.69, down 21 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents higher following the USDA report. US corn ending stocks were pegged at 1,862 billion bushels versus trade ideas of 1,845 million. World stocks came in at at 209.81 MMT versus the average trade guess of 207.35 MMT. Brazil's corn crop was unchanged at 84 MMT and Argentina's was 1 MMT higher than previously expected at 28 MMT. Brazil's exports were unchanged (as were those from the US) and Argentina's increased 1 MMT to 20.5 MMT. EU imports were dropped 1 MMT to 15 MMT this season "on expectations that a greater use of wheat in feed rations curbs demand for corn. In addition, the pace of issuing import licenses has slowed in recent months." May 16 Corn settled at $3.62 3/4, up 6 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 3-5 cents higher. The USDA put US all wheat ending stocks at 976 million bu, very close to what was expected. Chinese wheat consumption took a 2 MT hit, whilst Europe's was boosted by more than 3 MMT. It might be "old crop" but the USDA keep finding a little bit more of it, with Europe's 2015/16 production raised by 1.5 MMT to a nice round 160 MMT. With EU-28 exports lowered 0.5 MMT to 32 MMT "on account of lagging export licenses and greater domestic usage." The net result of which is actually to decrease EU carryout this year from the 20.16 MMT predicted a month ago to 19.33 MMT this time round, although that's still a 40% increase compared to last season. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.58 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.57 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.23 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents.