Choppy Trade In Chicago
07/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch easier. Weekly export sales rebounded from last week's disappointment to 420,400 MT for 2015/2016 - in line with trade estimates. Exports of 322,500 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in beans found 5 bulls, 18 bears and 1 neutral. The USDA's ag attache in Brazil was said to have predicted the 2016/17 Brazilian soybean crop at 103 MMT, a few million higher than most other trade forecasts. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.04 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.12 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $266.80, down $1.10; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.10, down 16 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents or so higher. Weekly export sales of 945,200 MT for 2015/16 were in line with expectations. Exports of 1,137,500 MT were a new a marketing-year-high for a second week running. The primary destinations were Mexico (371,400 MT), South Korea (129,200 MT), Colombia (129,000 MT), Taiwan (82,900 MT), Japan (82,800 MT), Peru (66,700 MT) and Saudi Arabia (65,400 MT). It may indeed be the case that Brazil is done on full season corn exports. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment in corn found 9 bulls, 10 bears and 5 neutral. The USDA attache's offices in South America peg Argentinean corn production of 31.5 MMT, and Brazilian production at 86 MMT. The official USDA estimates for 2015/16 are currently only 27.0 MMT and 84 MMT respectively. May 16 Corn settled at $3.61 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.64, up 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, kicked on it's way by weekly export sales of a negative 58,100 MT for 2015/16. There were sales of 159,300 MT were reported primarily for the Philippines (78,000 MT), South Korea (33,500 MT), Indonesia (25,000 MT) and Mexico (18,500 MT). Even so the two combined failed to meet trade total expectations of 250-550,000 MT. Egypt bought French wheat in their tender USD181.69/tonne FOB, or 194.34/tonne C&F, for May shipment, way below US price ideas. The USDA's ag attache in Argentina estimates their 2016/17 wheat crop at 14 MMT versus 11 MMT from the USDA themselves this season. There's talk of Brazil having a better 2016/17 wheat crop despite a drop in plantings. Neither would be good news for US wheat filling a void into Brazil as it has done the past couple of seasons. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.64 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.65 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.22 1/4, down 3 cents.
