EU Grains Mixed, Rapeseed Gets Support From Soybeans

04/04/16 -- EU grains closed mixed, with rapeseed continuing to get support for strong US soybeans and lower world OSR production estimates again this year.

At the finish, front month May 16 London wheat was down GBP0.40/tonne at GBP105.60/tonne, May 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.75/tonne easier at EUR155.25/tonne, Jun 16 corn was down EUR4.75/tonne to EUR152.50/tonne and May 16 rapeseed was up EUR2.00/tonne at EUR370.25/tonne.

Reported late from Friday was that the EU issued 969 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences last week, down 8.2% from the previous week but still a respectable number. The total volume to date is now 22.16 MMT, a 13% decrease on a year ago - recall the USDA has full season all wheat exports for the EU-28 declining by 8.25% in 2015/16.

Barley export licences last week were only 87 TMT, although the season to date total of over 8 MMT is still a 17% advance on this time a year ago. The USDA currently has these down 15.4% year-on-year.

Europe is then making some room for new crop as and when it comes along, Lord knows we will need it. Russia and Ukraine aren't letting the grass grow under their feet either though with regards to that respect.

Ukraine seaports shipped out 421 TMT of grains last week, including 1489 MT of wheat and 272 TMT of corn. Their season to date total is now 30.52 MMT of grains, of which 12.89 MMT is wheat, 4.404 MMT barley and 13.4 MMT corn,

In Russia meanwhile, grain exports for the season to date total 28.08 MMT, of which 20.58 MMT is wheat, 3.88 MMT barley and 3.80 MMT corn.

Early spring plantings in Ukraine meanwhile are 60% done on 1.5 million ha. Russia is only 2% done, in line with last year.

The GFS Model had Russia and Ukraine getting temperatures 2-10 degrees C above normal for the next two weeks, although other weather models are showing things not quite so out of ordinary with "normal" for this time of year. Central areas of the region are drier than normal too, which warrants keeping an eye on.