EU Grains Rise On Ukraine/Russian Dryness Talk
05/04/16 -- EU grains closed mixed. Trade talk of much warmer than normal temperatures across most of Europe, and heat/dryness issues too in the weeks ahead for Russia and Ukraine are supportive for now.
At the finish May 16 London wheat was GBP0.85/tonne higher at GBP106.45/tonne. May 16 Paris wheat gained EUR1.25/tonne to EUR156.50/tonne, corn added EUR1.50/tonne to EUR154.00/tonne and rapeseed closed a euro weaker at EUR369.25/tonne.
Lower wheat production prospects for both Russia and Ukraine this year are getting some attention. "However, these concerns alone do not appear large enough to be game-changers," said the HGCA - at least not yet anyway.
The latest GFS model weather run shows the area of "drier than normal" to be more extensive than it was yesterday. At the same time the GFS model is now forecasting temperatures in the 10-15C higher than normal bracket.
These maps van be viewed by copying and pasting the following links:
Western Russia/Ukraine temps:
http://www.worldagweather.com/fcstwx/fcsttmp_anom_gfs_wa_day8.png
and precipitation here:
http://www.worldagweather.com/fcstwx/fcstpcp_anom_gfs_wa.png
The areas set to see the highest temps and least rainfall are significant wheat producing regions.
The forecast for Europe is generally favourable for the coming weeks.
Tunisia are tendering for 42,000 MT of durum wheat and Ethiopia for 70,000 MT of soft wheat, both of optional origin.
The USDA's FAS said that Tunisia's wheat crop this year would rise 21% to 1.1 MMT, cutting imports to 1.7 MMT in 2015/16.
They also estimated that Morocco's wheat crop would more than halve to 3.74 MMT due to reduced plantings and unfavourable heat/dryness throughout the season. Wheat imports in 2016/17 could rise 20% to 3.9 MMT, they said.
