EU Grains Higher As Exports Rise And Stocks Diminish

26/05/16 -- EU grains mostly higher on better than expetced demand and lower 2015/16 ending stocks than originally feared.

Front month Jul 16 London wheat closed up GBP0.20/tonne at GBP106.50/tonne, Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR163.25/tonne, June corn closed EUR1.50/tonne higher at EUR170.50/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR0.75/tonne firmer at EUR374.25/tonne.

Defra predicted that UK wheat exports would jump 42% to a seven year high 2.75 MMT in 2015/16.

That figure might still be to low as the HGCA said it "may be conservative, with the current pace of exports".

In a relatively late turn-up for the books Defra said that the UK exported nearly 1 MMT of grain in Jan/Mar - up 55% versus last season and a 13-year high for the period.

UK 2015/16 ending stocks may well the be not so burdensome as many had thought then, especially if we factor in increased demand from the feed sector (and Ensus?) highlighted earlier this week.

Does this signal the end of the hefty old crop/new crop spread then? It might well do too, as the current level of over GBP10/tonne still looks unsustainable, even if it is down on where things were.

The EU Commission forecast the soft wheat crop here at 145.1 MMT, up from 142.8 MMT a month ago "as weather conditions have remained mild for the last weeks in Europe," said Agritel.

They also noted old crop soft wheat exports rising 2 MMT versus last month.

Weekly soft wheat export licences came in at 740,000 MT and are now 28.2 MMT versus 29.3 MT a yeat ago.

EU rapeseed production in 2016 was forecast at 22 MMT versus 22.3 MMT a year ago.