Chicago Grains Close - Friday
03/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower on the day but with strong gains for the week. Rumour of strong Chinese buying underpins the market in the wake of reduced Argentine production and exports in 2015/16. Informa this morning reduced its 2015/16 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1.6 MMT to 98.5 MMT (USDA: 99 MMT), but left its Argentine production unchanged at 55 MMT. Weekly US export sales came in at 309,400 MT for old crop and 736,700 MT for new crop against expectations for a combined 600,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.32, down 12 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.85 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $414.30, down $4.00; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.26, unchanged.
Corn: The corn market closed higher. Informa put its updated 2015/16 Brazilian corn production estimate at 78.9 MMT (USDA: 81.0 MMT). The trade is now thinking that the USDA is at least 1MMT overstated on Brazilian corn if not more like 3-4 MMT. Ending stocks there in 2016/17 are therefore not likely to be so large as the USDA currently expect. Weekly export sales for old crop of 1,317,900 MT were impressive. Net sales of new crop 128,900 MT were also reported. Trade forecasts were for sales of 1.0 to 1.5 MMT combined. US Corn is competitively priced for export, unlike wheat. Strong demand is being seen from the feed sector where the US meal-corn spread hit 18 month highs this week. The trade is still thinking that maybe 300-500,000 acres of intended corn won't get in this year. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.18 1/4, up 3 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.19 3/4, up 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer. Weekly export sales came in at 107,400 MT on old crop and 385,000 MT on new crop. New crop sales included one 55,000 MT consignment to Brazil. Informa estimated that 2016/17 US winter wheat production will reach 1.448 billion bushels. If correct this would boost US production 52 million bushels and carryout would grow to 1080 million bushels for the 2016/17 crop year. Wet weather in France, and the forecast for more of the same to come, keeps causing concern over quality/quantity losses and pest issues. FranceAgriMer cut their weekly crop ratings again today and now go only 81% good to very good, 8 points down on this time last year. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.97 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.74, up 9 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.47 3/4, up 7 cents.
