Nogger's Blog

20/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with some fairly steep losses. Weekly export inspections came in at 314,990 MT. After the close the USDA cut US soybean good to excellent crop ratings one point to 73% (65% a year ago). Emergence is at 89%, up 10 points on the week and 5 above the 5-year average. Planting is 96% complete. US weather holds the key. "The forecast is hopeful for Midwest rainfall this week. A series of short-wave disturbances would track west-to-east across the northern United States, promoting periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. These would be “hit-or-miss” showers with a 40-60% chance of occurrence. Near normal Midwest temperatures are expected to resume, as warm, humid air is suppressed by a cool Canadian air mass descending from Canada," said Martell Crop Projections. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.43 1/2, down 16 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.32 3/4, down 15 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $402.70, down $4.70; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.64, down 29 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day with hefty losses, falling from last night's one-year high. A wetter outlook for the week ahead sparked the sell-off. Weekly export inspections of 1.235 MMT were pretty good, even if they were down nearly 28% from the previous week. Customs data shows that Ukraine seaports exported 105 TMT of corn last week, and Russian seaports only 12,7 TMT. Russia's corn exports to date this season ate 4.62 MMT. South Korea bought 328,000 MT of optional origin corn in a tender for Oct/Nov shipment over the weekend. They are also seen buying feed wheat in preference to corn. After the close the USDA said that 75% of the US corn crop was in good to excellent condition, unchanged on last week. It was generally expected to be 1 to 2% lower due to last week’s high temperatures. No figure was given on emergence which is now assumed at 100%. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.21 1/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.26 3/4, down 16 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, reversing most of Friday's gains. Weekly export inspections are showing signs of picking up. These were 571,724 MT last week, up from 363,803 MT the previous week and nearly 68% larger than the same week in 2015. The USDA said that the 2016 US winter wheat harvest was 25% done, 3 points behind average, but 14 up on the week. Crop conditions were unchanged at 61% good to excellent. Spring wheat conditions in the good to excellent category fell 3 points to 76%. Spring wheat at the headed stage was 28%, double the norm. Ag Canada estimated grain stocks there at 9.95 MMT versus 10.2 MMT previously, They see 2016/17 carryout at 9.38 MMT, with exports at 38.43 MMT. Saudi Arabia and South Korea bought bought wheat, and Jordan are tendering for wheat. Russia said that it's grain exports so far this season were 12% ahead of last year at 33.28 MMT, of which wheat accounts for 72.45%. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.73, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.51 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.43 3/4, down 5 cents.